Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls Short of $100K Inflation-Adjusted Milestone in 2025

Bitcoin's price milestone of $100,000 in 2025 has come under scrutiny when adjusted for inflation. While headlines celebrated the nominal achievement, analysts argue that when measured in 2020 purchasing power, Bitcoin's peak fell short of the symbolic figure according to analysis. This nuance highlights how macroeconomic shifts, particularly inflation, affect the interpretation of price benchmarks.

Bitcoin reached a nominal high of around $126,000 in October 2025, but when adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it only reached about $99,848 in 2020 dollars according to research. This means that the milestone, while significant in nominal terms, did not fully match the psychological expectations many had.

The debate over Bitcoin's inflation-adjusted price is more than a technicality. It reflects broader concerns about real returns, particularly as institutional investors and asset managers evaluate the cryptocurrency's role in diversified portfolios according to analysis.

How Markets Reacted

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 showed mixed signals. After hitting its nominal high in October, the asset retreated sharply, closing at around $87,500 by December 23, 2025 according to market data. This decline came amid growing ETF outflows, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording over $142 million in outflows on Monday, December 22 according to reports. The outflows marked a three-day trend, raising concerns about weakening institutional demand.

Corporate behavior also reflected caution. Strategy Inc., led by Michael Saylor, increased its USD reserve by $748 million, signaling a more defensive stance as Bitcoin prices declined from their October high by roughly 30% according to market analysis. This move underscored a broader shift in corporate risk management amid crypto market volatility.

What Analysts Are Watching

The discussion around Bitcoin's real value is not just academic. It ties into how institutional investors evaluate performance. For example, Citi's research predicts a price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin in 12 months, with a bullish case reaching $189,000 according to forecasts. These forecasts depend heavily on real returns-performance after accounting for inflation and opportunity costs relative to other investments.

Inflation-adjusted analysis also reveals the broader economic context. The CPI yardstick itself faced disruptions in 2025, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspending operations for a period during the government shutdown according to reports. This added uncertainty to the inflation-adjusted interpretation of Bitcoin's price. Analysts now debate whether the nominal high of $126,000 in October 2025 was sufficient to clear the real value of $100,000 in 2020 dollars, depending on the methodology used.

Risks to the Outlook

The market's post-peak behavior has raised questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin's bullish momentum. By December 4, 2025, spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) had fallen from a peak of $169.5 billion to roughly $120.7 billion according to analysis. While not all of this decline was due to mass exits, the trend pointed to a cooling in enthusiasm.

Derivatives data also provided a cautionary signal. Perpetual open interest for Bitcoin dropped by about $3 billion in late December, indicating that traders were reducing leveraged positions ahead of the holiday season according to market data. These moves reflect risk aversion and highlight the role of macroeconomic factors like inflation, interest rates, and real yield levels in shaping investor sentiment.

What This Means for Investors

For retail and institutional investors alike, the inflation-adjusted debate serves as a reminder that nominal price milestones can be misleading. A $100,000 Bitcoin in 2025 is not the same as a $100,000 Bitcoin in 2020 due to the erosion of purchasing power over time according to analysis. Investors must now consider not just the headline number but the real value it represents.

Looking ahead, three scenarios dominate the outlook. First, if inflation cools as policymakers project, nominal Bitcoin highs will carry more real-world significance. Second, if inflation remains sticky, Bitcoin could hit new nominal highs without matching the inflation-adjusted performance of past cycles. Third, a resurgence in ETF demand could push through real-value hurdles even in a volatile macroeconomic environment according to analysis.

For now, the market remains in a state of consolidation. Investors are closely watching for signs of renewed ETF inflows, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic shifts that could tip the balance in Bitcoin's favor according to market analysis. The next chapter in Bitcoin's story will likely depend less on nominal milestones and more on whether the market can deliver real gains in a world where the dollar keeps losing its purchasing power.