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Justin Spittler, chief trader at RiskHedge, has asserted that
remains untested at its price floor despite recent volatility, challenging claims of market stabilization [1]. His analysis, rooted in technical indicators and market behavior, suggests the cryptocurrency is likely to face further downward pressure before establishing a baseline. On Friday, Bitcoin dipped to an intraday low of $114,518 before rebounding to $115,692, marking a 6% decline from its July 14 record high of $118,972 [2]. Spittler anticipates a possible retest of the $113,000 level, cautioning that "a bit more pain" could follow for short-term holders. However, he rules out a deep retracement, citing the recent breakout as a limiting factor.The trader’s bearish outlook is tempered by signs of residual risk appetite. Alternative cryptocurrencies have shown resilience during the correction, with the ETH/BTC pair rising nearly 1% as
briefly surpassed $3,700 [3]. This strength, observed by analysts like Chris Burniske of Placeholder, suggests market participants are not entirely abandoning crypto despite the downturn [4]. Spittler’s perspective aligns with on-chain metrics: Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) surged to $44.5 billion, an all-time high, signaling heightened speculative activity [5]. Such spikes in OI often precede volatile price swings, reinforcing the idea that the market is bracing for another significant move.While some analysts remain bullish, institutional forecasts like Citigroup’s projection of $135,000 by year-end—or $199,000 in a "most bullish scenario"—hinge on macroeconomic and regulatory assumptions [6]. These predictions contrast with Spittler’s caution, highlighting a divide between speculative optimism and technical pragmatism. Short-term holder balances, which show minimal shifts, further complicate the narrative. Such stability could indicate a prolonged bull trend or delayed reactions to broader market pressures [7].
The debate over Bitcoin’s trajectory extends to on-chain activity. Recent research suggests retail investors may be offloading profits, hinting at a potential "local bottom" as buying interest stabilizes [8]. However, historical patterns during crypto crashes—marked by sharp outflows from short-term holders—serve as a cautionary backdrop. Analysts emphasize that the absence of major shifts in holder balances could equally reflect sustained bullish sentiment rather than a bottoming process.
Spittler’s warnings underscore the fragmented views among professionals, with technical indicators like stalled price action below $118,000 and weakening support zones reinforcing his stance [9]. Traders now await a decisive breakout or breakdown to determine the next phase. In the interim, the interplay between speculative optimism and caution will likely keep Bitcoin in a state of flux, with open interest and on-chain metrics serving as key barometers.
Source: [1] [Top Trader: Bitcoin Hasn't Bottomed Yet] [https://u.today/top-trader-bitcoin-hasnt-bottomed-yet]
[2] [Crypto Crash? Bitcoin Still Over $115k] [https://99bitcoins.com/news/presales/crypto-crash-bitcoin-still-over-115k-and-ethereum-holding-strong-at-3600-what-crash/]
[3] [Bitcoin Could Hit $199000 by Year's End, Says Citigroup] [https://www.tipranks.com/news/bitcoin-could-hit-199000-by-years-end-says-citigroup-c]
[4] [Bitcoin's Open Interest Reaches $44B Amid Price Drop] [https://m.economictimes.com/crypto-news-today-live-25-jul-2025/liveblog/122889124.cms]
[5] [Bitcoin Hits Record High with Stable Short-Term Holder Balance] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-hits-record-high-stable-short-term-holder-balance-signaling-prolonged-bull-trend-2507/]
[6] [Bitcoin Speculators Hint at 'Local Bottom'] [https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-speculators-hint-at-local-bottom-buyers-target-117-5k]
[7] [3 Reasons Why the Crypto Market Isn't in a Bubble (Yet)] [https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/07/24/3-reasons-why-crypto-isnt-in-a-bubble-yet/]
[8] [Crypto Crash? Bitcoin Still Over $115k] [https://99bitcoins.com/news/presales/crypto-crash-bitcoin-still-over-115k-and-ethereum-holding-strong-at-3600-what-crash/]
[9] [Bitcoin Stalls Below $118,000] [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-stalls-below-118-000-164211124.html]
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