Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls 4% Below $115K Support as $390M Liquidations Test Resilience

Bitcoin derivatives data has raised questions about the resilience of the $115,000 support level as the cryptocurrency fell below that threshold for the first time in two weeks. The decline, which saw Bitcoin drop 4% between Thursday and Friday, coincided with a $390 million liquidation of futures contracts during the monthly derivatives expiry, accounting for 14% of open interest. Despite the correction, key indicators suggest a neutral stance among traders, with no clear shift in long-term expectations.

The 2-month Bitcoin futures premium relative to spot markets currently stands at 7%, within the typical 5%–10% annualized range. This neutrality contrasts with the 8% premium observed at the start of the week, indicating that the $4,700 price drop has not yet altered investor sentiment. Meanwhile, the 25% delta skew for Bitcoin options—used to gauge market fear—spiked to 10% on Friday, a level last seen four months earlier. However, the metric quickly normalized to 1%, signaling balanced risk pricing for upward and downward moves. This suggests that whales and market makers are not factoring in significant directional bias at present [1].

The data aligns with broader market dynamics. Bitcoin’s 7% pullback from its July 14 record high of $123,181 has not triggered widespread panic. Stablecoin demand in China, a key metric for retail sentiment, remains steady, with Tether (USDT) trading at a 0.5% discount to the US dollar. This marginal discount, while slightly indicative of caution, does not reflect a broad flight from crypto assets. Notably, stablecoin inflows and outflows have remained largely unchanged despite Bitcoin’s record highs [1].

Order book analysis adds nuance. CoinGlass data reveals a cluster of bid support at $114,500 but a dense sell wall extending to $118,500. This imbalance implies that while immediate support exists, sellers are positioned to capitalize on short-term rebounds, potentially capping Bitcoin’s recovery. ETF outflows have further compounded downward pressure, with over $285 million exiting Bitcoin ETFs between July 14–18. Analysts caution that the $115,000 level’s strength will depend on whether inflows resume and how macroeconomic factors, such as trade tensions or US recession risks, evolve [2].

Conflicting forecasts underscore the uncertainty. Citi maintains a base-case projection of $135,000 by year-end but warns of a deeper correction to $105,000–$112,000 if the support fails. Binance similarly notes that a sustained close above $115,000 could trigger a rally toward $120,000, while a breakdown might lead to prolonged consolidation. Short-term traders are increasingly cautious, with liquidation data highlighting heightened margin call risks amid persistent volatility [3].

Long-term holders, however, remain positioned to act as a safety net. Holders of 348,000 BTC at a $98,000 cost basis could provide deeper support if the $115,000 threshold collapses. The absence of a clear consensus among traders and fragmented order flow suggest that the next price move may hinge on external catalysts, such as regulatory developments or macroeconomic shifts. For now, Bitcoin’s derivatives data reflects a market in flux—neither bullish nor bearish, but watching closely for signals of stability or breakdown.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin derivatives data questions the strength of BTC’s $115K support] [https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-data-questions-the-strength-of-btc-s-115k-support?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound]

[2] [BTC Dives Below $115K, $140M in Longs Liquidated] [https://cryptoadventure.com/bitcoin-whiplash-btc-dives-below-115k-140m-in-longs-liquidated]

[3] [Discover Today's Latest Crypto Trending Articles] [https://www.binance.com/en/square/trending]