Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls 3.8% Below July High as Mixed Market Signals Emerge

Bitcoin remains below its all-time high, trading near $118,000—a 0.6% daily decline and a 3.8% retreat from its July peak above $123,000 [1]. On-chain data reveals divergent strategies between retail and institutional market participants, with short-term holders (STHs) on Binance signaling profit-taking while Kraken records whale-driven outflows linked to long-term accumulation. This contrast highlights a fragmented market sentiment, where smaller traders appear cautious and larger actors prepare for potential upside.

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha noted that Binance’s STH inflow ratio has crossed the 0.4 threshold, historically correlated with increased retail selling pressure [2]. STHs, typically holding Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days, often deposit assets during price surges to lock in gains. The recent spike in this metric suggests growing retail exit activity amid volatility concerns. Conversely, Kraken’s single-day outflow of 9,600 BTC on July 22—one of the largest in months—was interpreted by Taha as a sign of whale accumulation, with institutional or high-net-worth participants transferring Bitcoin to personal wallets [3]. This divergence underscores the coexistence of short-term positioning and strategic long-term planning in the market.

Binance’s reserve dynamics further complicate the narrative. According to CryptoQuant’s Darkfost, the exchange’s unrealized profit on Bitcoin reserves has reached an all-time high of 60,000 BTC, despite a decline in total holdings from 631,000 BTC in September 2024 to 574,000 BTC currently [4]. Approximately 16,000 BTC are tied up in custodial wallets to support the BTCB token on the BNB Chain. Darkfost attributed the falling reserves to a broader trend of investors favoring private wallet storage over centralized platforms, a shift he views as a positive sign of confidence. The rising unrealized profit, meanwhile, indicates that remaining holdings have appreciated in value, strengthening Binance’s position despite outflows.

The mixed signals across exchanges reflect a transitional phase for Bitcoin. While retail sell-offs and leveraged liquidations—exceeding $500 million in forced exits—point to heightened volatility [5], on-chain fundamentals such as the Bitcoin Fundamental Index remain resilient. Analysts note that the current consolidation aligns with historical patterns following sharp rallies, with overbought RSI readings and resistance at $120,000 acting as natural pauses. However, leveraged positions on both long and short sides remain fragile, increasing the risk of further corrections if price shifts trigger margin calls [6].

Looking ahead, the market’s direction may hinge on macroeconomic clarity and retail behavior. With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in August looming, traders are pricing in a 56% probability of a September rate cut [14]. Until then, Bitcoin is likely to trade within a $117,000–$120,000 range, with bulls targeting a breakout and bears monitoring support levels. The broader crypto market has mirrored Bitcoin’s stagnation, as altcoins slipped 4.2% and Ethereum fell to $3,600 [10]. A decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance to 60.7% has sparked speculation about altcoin rotations, though large-cap tokens like XRP and Solana face sharper declines as risk-off sentiment persists [13].

As of press time, the crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 74, reflecting lingering optimism despite the recent pullback [15]. Analysts remain divided on the short-term outlook, with some viewing the consolidation as a healthy correction and others warning of potential retracements to $113,000. The absence of major cycle-top indicators, such as Pi Cycle Top or MVRV thresholds, suggests the current phase remains part of a broader uptrend [9].

Source:

[1] https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-consolidates-below-120k-as-exchange-activity-reflects-mixed-market-signals/

[2] https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-consolidates-below-120k-as-exchange-activity-reflects-mixed-market-signals/

[3] https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-consolidates-below-120k-as-exchange-activity-reflects-mixed-market-signals/

[4] https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-consolidates-below-120k-as-exchange-activity-reflects-mixed-market-signals/

[5] https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-consolidates-below-120k-as-exchange-activity-reflects-mixed-market-signals/

[6] https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-consolidates-below-120k-as-exchange-activity-reflects-mixed-market-signals/

[14] https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-consolidates-below-120k-as-exchange-activity-reflects-mixed-market-signals/

[15] https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-consolidates-below-120k-as-exchange-activity-reflects-mixed-market-signals/