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Bitcoin traders are navigating a period of heightened volatility as the "ghost month"—a historically weak period in August and September—looms. Despite recent short-term resilience, the market faces bearish pressure, with
dipping below $117,000 on August 14 amid a bearish engulfing pattern [1]. This follows a record high of $124,000 earlier in the month, where multiple tailwinds briefly aligned to push the price to new heights [3]. However, the pullback has raised concerns among traders that the seasonal weakness associated with the ghost month could extend the current correction [1].Market participants have absorbed the dips, with strong demand observed in both U.S. and South Korean markets. The
Premium Index reached a monthly high, signaling renewed retail interest, while the Kimchi Premium turned positive, reflecting growing Korean demand [1]. Crypto trader Hansolar noted that buying pressure is distributed across major exchanges including Coinbase, Bitfinex, and South Korean platforms [1].Stablecoin inflows also suggest traders are preparing for a potential recovery.
inflows surged to $3.88 billion following the price decline, indicating capital readiness [1]. Additionally, capitulation signals remained muted, with only 16,800 BTC moved to exchanges at a loss by short-term holders—significantly lower than the 48,000 BTC seen in previous corrections [1]. This suggests that panic selling is not yet widespread, and market resilience is holding.Technical analysis identifies a key support range between $116,000 and $117,000, where both spot and futures buying interest appears strong [1]. However, historical patterns indicate an average drawdown of 21.7% during the ghost month period since 2017. In 2017, Bitcoin saw a 39.8% decline, and a 23% pullback was recorded in 2021 [1]. If this pattern holds, the price could fall into the $105,000–$100,000 range before stabilizing.
While some years have ended the ghost month with positive returns, the mid-period volatility remains a significant risk. Traders are advised to remain cautious as deeper corrections in August could set the stage for a stronger rebound in the fourth quarter [1]. Managing expectations and liquidity is crucial during this historically weak period, and investors should monitor both technical indicators and macroeconomic developments as they navigate the uncertainty.
The market’s resilience to short-term shocks remains a positive signal, but the ghost month effect continues to weigh on risk appetite and profit-taking behavior. Investors should balance short-term stability with the potential for deeper corrections before the end of the season [1].
Source: [1] Bitcoin Traders Absorb the Dips but ‘Ghost Month’ Could Extend Woes (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-traders-absorb-the-dips-but-ghost-month-could-extend-woes)
[3] Bitcoin Hits Record $124K as 4 Tailwinds Align (https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2025/08/14/bitcoin-hits-usd124k-record-as-4-tailwinds-align-crypto-daybook-americas)

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