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Bitcoin has breached the $116,000 support level, marking a significant shift in market sentiment amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. According to Matrixport, a leading crypto analysis firm, the decline reflects broader risk-off positioning and seasonal pressures that typically affect Bitcoin performance during the summer months [2]. The firm has reiterated its advice for a tactical defensive approach until market fundamentals stabilize [2].
The drop below this key level has raised concerns among traders and analysts. Bitcoin closed at $114,714.42 on August 4, 2025, down 3.51% over the past week and 0.88% in the last 24 hours [2]. The decline has been attributed to several factors, including weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, the unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, and increased speculation surrounding potential rate cuts in September [2]. These events have amplified volatility across global risk assets, with Bitcoin being particularly affected.
Whale activity has also intensified, as large holders have moved significant amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges, potentially indicating selling pressure. Analysts are now closely watching whether Bitcoin can retake the $116,000 level. Failure to do so could signal further downward movement, with some, including Trader Cipher X, warning of a potential drop to $104,000 [2]. On the other hand, BitBull has identified a potential reversal pattern and suggested a target price of $148,000, while others project a possible rally to $150,000 by October 2025 [2].
Market fundamentals remain under pressure, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a net outflow of $812 million—the second-highest on record—indicating reduced institutional confidence [2]. The 24-hour trading volume for Bitcoin reached $234.95 billion, with a year-to-date return of 22.42%. Ethereum also faced downward pressure, falling to $3,555.34, with concerns over its ability to retest the $3,800–$4,000 range [2].
Notably,
, led by Michael Saylor, continued to express bullish interest in Bitcoin by purchasing 21,021 BTC at an average price of $117,256 each. This move highlights institutional buying activity at key resistance levels, despite ongoing short-term skepticism in the market [2].Technical indicators remain mixed. Man of Bitcoin emphasized the importance of the $112,000 level, noting that breaking below it could confirm the formation of a top. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with analysts suggesting that any meaningful recovery will depend on an improvement in macroeconomic conditions or regulatory developments [2].
As the market awaits key catalysts, including U.S. tariff policy and Federal Reserve decisions, the focus remains on Bitcoin’s ability to stabilize and form a new base. Until then, risk management and a defensive trading approach are widely recommended [2].
Source:
[1] Bitcoin News | CryptoDnes (https://cryptodnes.bg/en/news/bitcoin/)
[2] HashKey Trade Moment: Amidst a Challenging (https://news.futunn.com/en/post/60036837/hashkey-trade-moment-amidst-a-challenging-macroeconomic-environment-bitcoin-holding)

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