Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls Below $115K as $390M Liquidations Test Support Amid 7% Drop From Peak

Bitcoin derivatives data has raised questions about the resilience of the $115,000 support level, as recent price fluctuations and market indicators suggest cautious positioning among traders. Bitcoin fell below $115,000 for the first time in two weeks amid the monthly derivatives expiry, which saw $390 million in futures contracts liquidated—14% of open interest. Despite a 7% decline from its July 14 peak of $123,181, futures and options data indicate a neutral stance among market participants rather than a clear shift in sentiment [1].

The 2-month futures premium for Bitcoin currently stands at 7%, aligning with the typical 5%-10% annualized range seen in normal market conditions. This suggests no immediate bearish or bullish bias, even as the price dropped by $4,700. However, the 25% delta options skew—a key indicator of market fear—spiked to 10% on July 16, a level last observed four months earlier. This sharp rise, though quickly reversing to a balanced 1% by the close, highlights temporary volatility but not sustained bearish pressure [1].

Further analysis reveals mixed signals. While the elevated skew suggested short-lived fear, the absence of a sustained premium in put options indicates whales and market makers are pricing in comparable risks for upward and downward moves. This contrasts with scenarios where traders aggressively hedge against corrections, which would drive the skew above 6% [1].

Stablecoin demand in China, a barometer for retail sentiment, remained stable, with Tether (USDT) trading at a 0.5% discount to the U.S. dollar. A discount exceeding 0.5% typically signals fear, as traders exit crypto positions, but the current level suggests minimal impact from Bitcoin’s recent pullback. Over the past two weeks, stablecoin flows have shown little change despite Bitcoin’s all-time high, reinforcing the notion that regional demand remains steady [1].

Short-term dynamics, however, remain precarious. CoinGlass data shows a concentration of bid support at $114,500 but a dense cluster of sell orders up to $118,500, indicating bears could exploit weak buying pressure to test lower levels. Binance analysts caution that renewed ETF inflows might push Bitcoin back toward $120,000, but a failure to hold above $115,000 could trigger a correction toward $105,000–$112,000 [7].

Long-term forecasts, meanwhile, remain optimistic. Citi projects a year-end target of $135,000 under its base-case scenario, assuming macroeconomic stability and regulatory clarity, while a bullish case envisions $199,000 [3]. CoinDCX notes that sustained weakness below $115,000 could lead to consolidation near $100,000, with long-term holders defending $98,000–$104,000 [9]. These diverging views reflect broader uncertainties, particularly around U.S. regulatory developments and global trade tensions, which could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Derivatives activity underscores the market’s crossroads. While Bitcoin edged up 0.30% on July 17, the $115,223 price point masks underlying fragility. Short-term futures and options activity shows bears tightening control on lower timeframes, but bulls maintain dominance on 4-hour and daily charts. The $115,000 level is now a critical test: a breakout could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown risks deepening the correction [2].

Market participants remain split. Some view the current pullback as a temporary hurdle, while others see it as a precursor to broader volatility. The coming weeks will hinge on whether ETF flows and institutional demand can stabilize the price or if bearish momentum gains the upper hand. For now, derivatives data signals caution rather than panic, with the $115,000 support level acting as both a benchmark and a battleground for Bitcoin’s next move [1].

Source: [1] [Bitcoin Derivatives Data Questions the Strength of BTC’s $115K Support](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-data-questions-the-strength-of-btc-s-115k-support?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound) [2] [BTC Dives Below $115K, $140M in Longs Liquidated](https://cryptoadventure.com/bitcoin-whiplash-btc-dives-below-115k-140m-in-longs-liquidated/) [3] [Bitcoin to Hit $135K by Year-End in Base-Case Forecast](https://cryptoadventure.com/bitcoin-to-hit-135k-by-year-end-in-base-case-forecast-199k-in-bullish-scenario-citi) [7] [Crypto Newsletter, 24/7 Real-Time Market Updates, Global](https://www.coinglass.com/newsflash) [9] [Netizen Weekly | Bitcoin Market Update 23](https://netizencapital.substack.com/p/netizen-weekly-bitcoin-market-update-82e)