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Bitcoin’s decline on Friday underscored the crypto market’s sensitivity to shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, as waning hopes for near-term rate cuts spurred a sell-off across risk assets. The largest cryptocurrency dropped below $115,000, its lowest level since July 11, amid a broader selloff in equities and tech stocks, which historically correlate with
during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty [1]. The selloff followed stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which reinforced Federal Reserve officials’ signals that rate cuts might not occur until mid-2026 at the earliest [2]. This eroded confidence in a near-term easing of monetary policy, a key driver of risk-on sentiment earlier in the year.Technical indicators highlighted bearish momentum. Bitcoin/JPY formed a "descending triangle" pattern at record highs, a formation often associated with potential downside if critical support levels are breached [4]. Analysts noted that the broader uptrend remained intact but warned of consolidation. “Momentum has cooled, and traders are cautious,” said Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets [1]. Tony Sycamore of IG Australia added that Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remained constrained by a monthly trendline resistance at $125,000, which had previously capped its advance [1].
The derivatives market reflected heightened bearish sentiment. An unidentified speculator paid $5 million in premium on Deribit to purchase Bitcoin put options expiring August 8 at $110,000, signaling bets on further declines [1]. Meanwhile, Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro characterized the drawdown as a “healthy and necessary correction” from the $4 trillion peak reached in July [1]. Even a retreat to $3.4 trillion would be seen as profit-taking, he noted, emphasizing that the medium-term trend remains unchanged as long as the market stays above that threshold [1].
Institutional factors compounded the sell-off.
, a major crypto firm, faced scrutiny as its share price plummeted, raising concerns about liquidity and investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s pullback to the $115,000 range mirrored broader anxieties about speculative positions unwinding amid tightening financial conditions [5]. The decline also coincided with a seven-day Asian stock rally ending, further pressuring crypto assets [1].While the immediate outlook remains clouded by Fed uncertainty, long-term optimism persists. Analysts highlighted lingering bets on 2026 rate cuts, though rising bond yields pose a counterbalance. The interdependence between traditional and digital assets has grown, with Fed policy now a dominant variable influencing both. Regulatory developments and adoption trends remain key catalysts for investors [1].
Source:
[1] [Bitcoin Slides as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Diminish] [https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/07/25/bitcoin-price-today-fed-rates-trump-powell/]
[2] [Bitcoin slides as Fed rate cut hopes diminish] [https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/764057]
[4] [Focus on Bitcoin-Yen's 'Descending Triangle' as Fed Rate ...] [https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/24/focus-on-bitcoin-yen-s-descending-triangle-as-fed-rate-cut-bets-rise]
[5] [Bitcoin Slides Amid Galaxy Digital Sell-Off From $9.6 ...] [https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-987039-20250725]

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