Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls Below $114K as Geopolitical Tensions and On-Chain Data Signal Deeper Correction Risk

Bitcoin’s price is now at a critical junction as it tests key support levels following a breakdown from a multi-month consolidation range. The cryptocurrency initially held between $116K and $123K but fell sharply below the $114K threshold amid growing geopolitical tensions, particularly over the escalating nuclear threats between Russia and the United States. This breakdown triggered widespread market uncertainty and accelerated selling pressure, pushing Bitcoin toward the $111K–$112K range, a crucial support area defined by the lower boundary of an ascending channel and a prior swing high [1].

On the 4-hour chart, BTC’s breakdown from a bullish flag pattern confirmed a bearish shift in technical sentiment. The price has since found a temporary floor near $112K, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level—a common area for short-term rebounds. However, this level is under significant pressure, and a failure to hold above it could trigger a further decline toward the $100K psychological level [1].

On-chain data provides additional cause for concern. The Exchange Netflow indicator recorded a surge of 16,417 BTC moving to exchanges, the highest in over two months, signaling increased selling intent. Additionally, the Exchange Whale Ratio rose above 0.70, indicating that a large portion of this inflow came from whale addresses. Historically, such patterns have often preceded further price declines as large holders prepare for or respond to market corrections [1].

These developments suggest that while Bitcoin is still within a broader bullish context, the immediate-term outlook is bearish. The price remains vulnerable to further downside risk if institutional and large-cap investors continue to reallocate capital. Short-term traders are closely watching the $85K level, which could act as a key pivot point. A failure to reclaim this level could trigger a deeper correction toward $74K, and beyond that, the $63K and $100K levels remain at risk if bearish momentum continues [1].

Despite these risks, some analysts argue that a strong rebound from $74K could reestablish bullish control. However, given the current on-chain and technical conditions—particularly the weakening MVRV ratio and declining Bitcoin dominance—investors are urged to maintain a cautious stance. The ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed central bank signals further heighten the potential for volatility, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate further [1].

[1] Bitcoin Price Analysis: $100K Breakdown Looms for BTC if This Support Fails (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688facf9c2ab4f6a22e6a764/)