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Bitcoin's recent attempt to surpass the $123,000 mark was met with resistance, halting its ascent and causing a pullback in the market. This symbolic threshold, both technical and psychological, has become a focal point for investors and analysts alike. The failure to break through this level has sparked debates about the short-term trajectory of the cryptocurrency.
Analyst Joao Wedson identified the Alpha Price indicator as the main technical barrier preventing Bitcoin from surpassing the $123,000 mark. The Alpha Price, an on-chain indicator, considers the market age in days and the historical average market capitalization of Bitcoin. It is divided into several dynamic thresholds, known as "Alpha levels," which act as zones of psychological pressure. The $123,370 threshold, corresponding to the second Alpha level, is seen as a major resistance in the current bull market phase. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $122,800 before correcting, just short of this critical level.
According to Wedson, this level represents a strong selling pressure zone where investors seek to secure their gains. The fact that Bitcoin has not sustainably breached this level limits the probabilities of a bullish extension in the very short term. However, Wedson clarifies that this failure does not necessarily mark a market top but likely requires a retreat before any new breakout attempt. Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin could remain under pressure until it clearly validates this level as support. Until then, the market seems to be in a breathing phase, with medium-term bullish potential if on-chain conditions improve.
Adding to the technical resistance, a rare event further cooled bullish enthusiasm: the awakening of a whale from the Satoshi era. On July 17, a wallet inactive for over ten years suddenly moved its funds, causing a speculative shock within the market. Such activity is generally seen as a warning signal, as it suggests very old holders might be considering selling. This unusual transaction occurred just after Bitcoin was rejected at the $123,000 level, leading to an immediate price drop of over 2%, falling back below $118,000 within 24 hours.
Although no massive sell-off was confirmed, the mere movement of these funds was enough to trigger a climate of caution. This revived nervousness, combined with the technical failure to break through the Alpha Price level, opens the door to a short-term consolidation scenario. However, an imminent reevaluation of the Alpha Price indicator could potentially raise the critical thresholds. If on-chain flows resume a positive trend, the bullish scenario mentioned by Wedson, with a target of $143,000, would remain conceivable.

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