Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces Turning Point as S&P 500 Drives Risk-On, Gold Outperforms

Mike McGlone, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, has raised concerns that Bitcoin’s recent surge could be nearing a turning point, warning that runaway returns for cryptocurrencies may soon face headwinds. His analysis, shared on social media and in a recent interview with Cryptonews, draws parallels between the current market dynamics and historical speculative bubbles. McGlone emphasized that Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its upward trajectory is closely tied to the performance of traditional equities, particularly the S&P 500, which has been a key driver of risk-on sentiment in 2025 [1].

The analyst cited a Barron’s 1999 cover story titled “Amazon.bomb” as a cautionary example. At the time, skepticism about Amazon’s profitability led to a significant drop in its stock price, but those who invested during the downturn reaped substantial rewards as the company later became a trillion-dollar giant. McGlone likened this to the current debate around Bitcoin, noting that while recent gains have pushed BTC toward six-figure levels, excessive optimism could signal a “sell when they’re yelling” inflection point [1].

McGlone’s argument hinges on the relationship between Bitcoin and gold, which has outperformed the cryptocurrency since early 2024. He attributes this shift to gold’s status as a “store of value” in times of market uncertainty, a role traditionally associated with Bitcoin. However, as macroeconomic conditions evolve—particularly in the U.S. stock market—McGlone suggests that Bitcoin’s volatility could make it a less attractive option compared to the precious metal [1].

The S&P 500’s recent record highs, bolstered by a Trump-EU trade deal and easing tariff fears, have created a favorable backdrop for risk assets. Yet, McGlone warns that this environment may not last. Upcoming earnings reports from major tech firms and potential economic data releases could disrupt the current momentum. Notably, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson predicts a 5-10% correction in the S&P 500 before year-end, followed by a 15% rebound in 2026, a scenario that could impact Bitcoin’s trajectory [1].

Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates will be closely watched. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 97.9% probability that rates will remain unchanged, a move that could frustrate Trump’s economic agenda and influence investor behavior. Noelle Acheson, a crypto analyst, highlighted that Trump’s trade policies could strengthen the U.S. dollar, indirectly pressuring Bitcoin’s value by reducing demand for alternative assets [1].

McGlone’s broader thesis underscores the interconnectedness of macroeconomic trends and digital assets. He argues that Bitcoin’s ability to scale beyond $100,000 depends on sustained equity strength, a trend that may already be peaking. Historical precedents, such as the 1929 stock market crash and Japan’s 1989 bubble, serve as reminders of how speculative assets can face prolonged downturns when broader markets falter [1].

While the immediate outlook for Bitcoin remains mixed, the debate highlights the growing influence of macroeconomic factors on crypto markets. Analysts like Acheson and Wilson continue to monitor developments closely, with the next few months likely to determine whether Bitcoin can maintain its momentum or if a correction is on the horizon.

Source: [1] [Are Runaway Returns for Bitcoin Coming to an End? This Expert Thinks So] [https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/are-runaway-returns-for-bitcoin-coming-to-an-end-this-expert-thinks-so/]