Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Weakness in August-September Amid 7.5% Average Historical Drop

Bitcoin is entering a historically weak period, with August and September consistently marking a seasonal decline in price over the past decade. Data from COINOTAG indicates that Bitcoin has experienced losses in 8 of the past 12 years during this time, with an average drop of 7.5% in the August-September period between 2013 and 2024. Despite this recurring trend, market sentiment remains bullish, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, which currently stands at 72, indicating strong investor confidence [1].

The current environment is also marked by steady institutional support, particularly through Bitcoin ETF inflows, though the pace has slowed during this seasonal period. Experts like Michael Saylor continue to emphasize the long-term value of Bitcoin, reinforcing a sense of stability among institutional investors. Additionally, no significant leadership changes or regulatory updates have emerged to influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory in these months, as noted by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who attributes the trend to broader macroeconomic factors and market behavior [1].

The seasonal weakness is not isolated to Bitcoin alone; correlated assets like Ethereum tend to follow similar patterns of volatility during late summer. However, the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, suggesting the potential for stability or a rebound in the near term. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market has reached a 3-year high of 59.3%, supported by ETF inflows that totaled $6 billion in July, with BlackRock’s IBIT product accounting for over 80% of those flows [2].

On-chain metrics and options data also signal potential downward pressure. In late July, $4.69 billion in BTC options were set to expire, with maximum pain levels expected around $111,500. Similarly, Ethereum options had a put/call ratio of 1.88, with pain levels at $3,850, suggesting a bearish bias in the market [2]. Analysts from 10x Research and Matrixport have highlighted concerns over these on-chain signals and macroeconomic uncertainty, warning of a possible period of consolidation [3].

The broader macroeconomic landscape will play a critical role in shaping Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months. Key events in August, including the release of July nonfarm payrolls, CPI, PCE, and GDP data, as well as the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, will influence market sentiment and potentially impact the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory. Geopolitical uncertainty, including new tariffs introduced on August 1, adds another layer of volatility to the market [1].

While the market remains in a bullish phase, with the total crypto market cap reaching $3.83 trillion in July, investors are advised to remain cautious. The combination of historical seasonal patterns, macroeconomic fluctuations, and geopolitical risks may test the sustainability of recent gains. Long-term investors often view these dips as buying opportunities, supported by continued institutional inflows and expert endorsements [1][2].

Sources:

[1] COINOTAG, 2025-08-02, https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-may-face-seasonal-weakness-in-august-and-september-despite-positive-market-sentiment/

[2] AInvest, 2025-07-24, https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-dominance-hits-3-year-high-59-3-etf-approval-stable-chain-trends-2508/

[3] Bitget, 2025-07-31, https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604889678