Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces Quantum Threat 30% Vulnerable

David Carvalho, CEO and Chief Scientist at Naoris Protocol, has issued a stark warning about the potential vulnerability of Bitcoin's security in the face of advancing quantum computing technology. According to Carvalho, Bitcoin's reliance on elliptic-curve cryptography makes it susceptible to attacks from quantum computers, which could compromise its security within the next three to five years.

Carvalho's concerns are rooted in the capabilities of emerging quantum algorithms, particularly Shor’s algorithm, which is designed to break cryptographic protections in seconds once sufficiently powerful quantum computers are available. He highlighted that approximately 30% of Bitcoin, or 6 to 7 million BTC, is stored in addresses that expose public keys, making them prime targets for quantum attacks.

Carvalho emphasized that the advent of "Q-Day," the point at which quantum computers can regularly defeat today’s elliptic-curve or RSA-based cryptography, is fast approaching. He cited breakthroughs such as Microsoft’s Majorana chip and Google’s forecast for quantum machines capable of breaking RSA-2048 encryption in the near term as evidence of this impending threat.

With around 100 quantum systems already operational and projections of 5,000 by 2030, Carvalho urged investors to take immediate action by transferring assets to quantum-safe wallets, updating software, and using quantum-secure custodians. He warned that the window for action is narrow, possibly even shorter than three to five years, before quantum computing poses a significant threat to Bitcoin's security.

Concerns over Bitcoin's vulnerability to quantum computing have intensified in 2025 following multiple breakthroughs in the field. One notable development is IBM’s plan to launch the first fault-tolerant quantum computer, Quantum Starling, by 2029, which represents a significant advancement from today’s error-prone models.

However, opinions among experts remain divided on the timeline and impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin. Adam Back, an early Bitcoin adopter and CEO of Blockstream, has suggested that quantum computers are unlikely to threaten Bitcoin for at least 20 years. He noted that future breakthroughs might necessitate users, possibly even Satoshi Nakamoto, to move funds to quantum-resistant addresses.