Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces Pullback Risk as RSI Divergence and Open CME Gap Signal Potential Drop to $115K

Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked debate over its near-term trajectory, with technical indicators and market dynamics suggesting potential for a pullback. A bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) has emerged, indicating weakening momentum behind Bitcoin’s rally. This pattern, observed as higher price highs paired with lower RSI highs, historically precedes corrective moves. A similar divergence in March 2024 led to a 20% decline in the following days, raising concerns about a repeat scenario in 2025 [1].

A critical CME gap between $114,380 and $115,635 on the daily chart could act as a gravitational pull for Bitcoin. These gaps, formed during off-hours trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, often trigger price retests. Historical data show that seven of nine 2025 gaps have already been filled, with only this gap and a smaller one near $92,000 remaining unfilled. Analysts suggest Bitcoin may revisit these levels to close the $114K bracket, increasing the likelihood of short-term downside [1].

Anonymous crypto analyst Gaah highlighted that the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) has entered a distribution zone, a region historically associated with market euphoria and interim tops. While the current IBCI reading (80% of the zone’s lower bound) falls short of the 100% peak seen in past cycles, it still signals heightened corrective risk. Key metrics like the Puell Multiple and STH-SOPR remain below mid-levels, indicating retail and miner profit-taking has not yet peaked. Gaah noted, “The behavior of the IBCI offers a warning sign of high short-term correction risk, though not necessarily an end-of-cycle top” [1].

Market participants are closely watching the $115K–$118K range as a pivotal battleground. Seller exhaustion near $118K suggests temporary bearish pressure could wane, but a breakdown below $115K—a key psychological and technical level—might trigger further declines. Recent dips, such as Bitcoin’s drop to $117,634 on July 24, highlight the fragility of the current consolidation phase. Forecasts vary: if Bitcoin breaks above $120K with strong volume, it could rally to $135K–$150K by early August. Conversely, sustained weakness below $115K might push it toward $110.5K, according to projections from CoinDCX [2][7].

On-chain data reveals mixed signals. Bitcoin has been trapped in a tight range for 10 days, with long-term holders (LTHs) beginning to distribute positions, as indicated by the CDD ratio hitting historic levels. However, active supply data suggests holders remain reluctant to sell, potentially mitigating deeper corrections in the short term [4]. Meanwhile, stalled ETF inflows and geopolitical uncertainties, such as Trump-era trade deal speculation, have contributed to volatility. A 2% intraday drop on July 24 underscored the impact of macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties on investor sentiment [5].

The broader market context remains uncertain. While some view the consolidation phase as a necessary precursor to the next bull cycle, others warn that prolonged indecision could erode confidence. Traders will need to monitor whether Bitcoin’s movements align with bullish patterns, such as a breakout above $120K, or bearish signals like a breakdown below $115K. Analysts emphasize the importance of on-chain metrics like the CDD ratio as early warning signals [4][6].

As the crypto market navigates this critical juncture, the coming weeks will likely determine whether Bitcoin regains upward momentum or faces a prolonged consolidation period. Investors are advised to remain cautious, given the asset’s historical volatility and the absence of clear catalysts to resolve the current impasse.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin is losing its bullish momentum: Is a drop to $115K next?](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6882a37a747ff0612d594b50/)

[2] [Bitcoin Eyes $115K Dip as Seller Exhaustion Builds Near 118K zone](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/07-23-2025-bitcoin-price-news-bitcoin-eyes-115k-dip-as-seller-exhaustion-builds-near-118k-zone-27335236213818)

[4] [Bitcoin LTHs Start Distributing: CDD Ratio Hits Historic Levels](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-985358-20250725)

[5] [Bitcoin Falls to $117K as ETF Inflows Stall, Trump Trade Deal Uncertainty Lingers](https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-slides-below-118k-usd)

[7] [When Will the Crypto Market Bull Run Begin in 2025?](https://coindcx.com/blog/crypto-deep-dives/crypto-bull-run-2025/)