Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin faces potential 10–30% correction amid surging CTA exposure and bearish options positioning

Bitcoin faces mounting pressure for a near-term price correction amid surging Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) exposure in the U.S. equity market, which has reached a four-year high of 110% long positions. This level of overexposure has intensified concerns about sharp market reversals, particularly as CTAs are known for exacerbating volatility through algorithmic trading and leveraged strategies. The ripple effects from a potential equity deleveraging event could weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin, increasing its vulnerability to a pullback [1].

Options traders have begun preparing for a significant price drop, with put options concentrated between $100,000 and $80,000. This positioning implies a 10% to 30% decline is expected within the next 30 days, reflecting a broadly cautious sentiment in the market. Analysts attribute this trend to growing macroeconomic uncertainties, especially following recent downward revisions to the Nonfarm Payrolls data for May and June, which combined for a reduction of 258,000 jobs. These revisions have intensified fears of an economic slowdown, further clouding Bitcoin’s near-term outlook [1].

The economic data revisions have also shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently an 81.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Experts such as Fundstrat Capital’s CIO Tom Lee and Harris Financial Group’s Jamie Cox suggest that a Fed pivot may be imminent, potentially involving a larger 50 basis point cut. While such a move could provide some relief to financial markets, it remains several months away, leaving Bitcoin exposed to ongoing volatility in the short term [1].

Despite the bearish signals, not all analysts expect a steep crash. CryptoQuant’s Maarten Regterschot notes that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $112,000 in the near term and instead could enter a phase of consolidation marked by sideways trading and moderate volatility. This scenario would suggest a more measured correction rather than a dramatic sell-off, providing some breathing room for investors to reassess their positions [1].

Market dynamics are further complicated by the interplay between CTA-driven momentum and macroeconomic headwinds. While Bitcoin recently posted a 1.5% recovery from a low of $112,692, analysts caution that this bounce is not indicative of a broader reversal. Elevated CTA positions continue to pose a risk, as they can trigger rapid deleveraging events that amplify market swings [1].

Key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s current vulnerability include elevated CTA exposure, bearish options positioning, and negative macroeconomic data. These elements collectively create a high-risk environment where a 10–30% correction is not out of the question. However, the market is also showing signs of caution, with traders and analysts balancing bearish forecasts with expectations of consolidation and gradual stabilization [1].

The broader implications for the cryptocurrency market hinge on how the Fed’s policy decisions and economic data evolve in the coming months. A timely rate cut could help stabilize risk assets, while continued economic weakness may prolong the correction phase. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and closely monitor both macroeconomic indicators and CTA positioning to anticipate potential shifts in Bitcoin’s trajectory [1].

Source: [1] Experts Suggest Bitcoin Could Face Further Correction Amid Rising CTA Exposure and Market Uncertainty (https://en.coinotag.com/experts-suggest-bitcoin-could-face-further-correction-amid-rising-cta-exposure-and-market-uncertainty/)