Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces Mixed Sell Pressures as ETFs Post Outflows and Whales Withdraw Holdings

Bitcoin’s recent on-chain activity suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, with signs of increased selling pressure emerging alongside mixed signals from institutional and retail investors. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., a surge in Bitcoin’s active supply within 180 days indicates the approach of a new selling wave, as short-term holders (STHs) appear to be preparing for profit-taking [1]. This observation aligns with broader on-chain metrics, which show a spike in STH activity on exchanges like Binance, crossing a threshold historically associated with retail-driven sell-offs [2]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price action has oscillated within a consolidation range of $116,000 to $120,000 following its record high of $123,218 in mid-July, raising questions about the sustainability of current bullish momentum.

The interplay between retail and institutional behavior further complicates the outlook. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $67.93 million in outflows on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of withdrawals and signaling cautious sentiment among large investors [2]. This trend contrasts with whale activity, where over 9,600 BTC were withdrawn from Kraken in a single day—the largest such withdrawal in months—suggesting that major holders are reducing exchange liquidity and potentially absorbing retail selling pressure [2]. However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) point to fading bullish momentum, with the RSI cooling to 62 after hitting overbought levels and MACD lines showing indecisiveness among traders [2].

While some analysts caution about an imminent correction, others highlight conflicting signals. CryptoQuant’s Inter Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) data shows a decline in Bitcoin flows to exchanges, a pattern observed historically during major bull runs just before large wallet sell-offs. However, unlike in 2017 and 2021, current IFP levels remain consolidating, indicating that whales are holding positions rather than liquidating [2]. This divergence between retail and institutional behavior underscores the complexity of the market, where early profit-taking by small investors coexists with accumulation by larger participants.

Price forecasts remain split. Coinpedia notes that when Bitcoin hit $70,000 earlier this year, supply activity spiked to 20%, coinciding with a wave of cashing profits—suggesting a similar dynamic could unfold as the price tests $120,000 thresholds [1]. If Bitcoin falls below $116,000, it may retest the 50-day EMA at $110,948, while a break above $120,000 could push it toward its previous high of $123,218 [2]. Analysts at Bitcoinist.com argue the asset is in a “growth zone,” with room for upside without overheating, but caution that ETF outflows and technical exhaustion may temper near-term gains [3].

The broader market context adds another layer of nuance. Institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors have historically driven Bitcoin’s surges, yet recent price action appears increasingly influenced by on-chain dynamics and exchange flows [1]. While critics argue the rally lacks intrinsic fundamentals, proponents point to whale accumulation and reduced exchange liquidity as bullish signs. As the market navigates this transitional phase, the balance between short-term profit-taking and long-term holding will likely determine Bitcoin’s next trajectory.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin’s Supply Surge Signals New Selling Wave] [https://en.coin-turk.com/bitcoins-supply-surge-signals-new-selling-wave/] [2] [Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Consolidates Between $116,000 and $120,000] [https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-rejected-from-120-000-as-momentum-cools-mild-etf-outflows-continue-202507231136] [3] [Bitcoin Investor Price Model Signals Healthy Growth] [https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-investor-price-model-signals-healthy-growth-btc-eyes-139k-level/].