Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces Long-Term Risks From Shrinking Rewards and Governance Rigidity

Justin Bons, founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, has issued a warning that Bitcoin could face a significant collapse within the next 7 to 11 years due to structural and economic vulnerabilities in its design. Bons argues that the shrinking block rewards—projected to fall to 0.39 BTC per block by 2036—could undermine the financial incentives for miners, reducing the security budget available to protect the network. At current price levels, he estimates the annual security budget would be around $2.3 billion, a figure he considers insufficient for a network with a potential multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization [1].

Bons also highlights Bitcoin’s rigid governance model as a potential liability. He points out that the Bitcoin Core development community has historically rejected proposals for changes such as increasing block size or allowing inflation beyond the 21 million supply cap. This inflexibility, he warns, could lead to chain splits or force inflationary adjustments, which may destabilize the system [1].

Furthermore, Bons raises concerns about the threat posed by future advancements in quantum computing. He notes that while the timeline for this risk is debated, some experts predict it could arrive as early as five years. He emphasizes that older wallets lacking modern cryptographic protections could be particularly vulnerable [1].

The warnings from Bons have sparked a lively debate within the crypto community. Some participants acknowledge the challenges but argue that Bitcoin has historically adapted to threats through innovations such as transaction fees and scaling solutions. Others propose alternative mechanisms like MEV capture or institutional miners operating at a loss to sustain the network [1]. One community member suggested emergency measures such as tail emissions or block size increases, similar to Monero’s ongoing discussions, as potential solutions [1]. Bons acknowledges these ideas but argues they would compromise Bitcoin’s core value proposition of fixed scarcity.

The debate reflects a broader divide among market participants. While some remain bullish, such as Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, who maintains a $400,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2026 based on institutional adoption, others like Bons emphasize structural and technological risks as potentially fatal [2]. Jacob King, a market commentator, has also raised concerns about the growing leverage in the Bitcoin market, warning that a major crash could be catastrophic [3]. Meanwhile, some institutional players are preparing for potential downturns, with firms like Strategy claiming they are prepared to withstand an 80% decline in Bitcoin’s price [4].

As the discussion unfolds, investors are being urged to conduct thorough due diligence and remain cautious, especially given the mixed outlook from different experts. The future of Bitcoin, it seems, will depend on how it evolves in response to these emerging challenges [1].

Source:

[1] https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-could-collapse-within-the-next-10-years-crypto-investor-warns/

[2] https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/bitcoin-price-is-going-down-as-market-stress-tests-bulls-before-jackson-hole/

[3] https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/08/18/expert-warns-of-catastrophic-crash-as-leverage-builds-in-bitcoin-market/

[4] https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/08/47201847/ross-gerber-calls-michael-saylors-bitcoin-approach-crazy-bad-math-for-investors-predicts-it-can-nuke-btc-if-things-go-wrong