Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces Double-Top Warning Amid 97.4% No-Fed-Cut Outlook Short-Term Rally and Imminent Correction Loom

Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked debate among analysts, with technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term rally followed by a significant correction. The cryptocurrency, currently hovering near $118,786 after briefly surpassing $123,000 in early July, faces scrutiny over a double-top formation identified by the MVRV 365-Day Moving Average. This pattern, historically linked to the 2021 bear market, indicates two price peaks approximately six months apart. The first peak occurred in July 2025, with the second projected around September 10, raising concerns about a market cascade [1].

The MVRV metric, which compares market value to realized value, has reached levels observed before prior corrections, amplifying caution among investors [1]. CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent emphasized that the timing aligns with broader macroeconomic narratives, including expectations for a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and shifting sentiment. “This alignment reinforces the need for caution,” Dent noted, adding that the lagging MVRV 365DMA could signal an earlier-than-expected decline as early as late August [1].

On-chain data reveals mixed signals. While retail investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, institutional activity suggests a more cautious stance. The UTXO Age Band chart indicates that buyers holding BTC for 1 week to 1 month increased holdings by 3.6% in the past month, while 1-day to 1-week holders added 1.4%. These cohorts acquired Bitcoin at prices just below the current level, signaling confidence in a short-term rally despite volatility [1]. Additionally, the Exchange Reserve metric fell to 2.3 million BTC, reflecting a shift toward long-term positioning as investors move assets into private wallets [1].

In contrast, institutional investors have shown a more volatile pattern. CoinGlass data reveals that they offloaded $285.2 million worth of Bitcoin between July 21–23, only to repurchase $375.5 million over the following two days. However, the latter purchase marked the smallest recorded inflow in recent months, indicating waning interest and a potential market inflection point [1]. This divergence between retail accumulation and institutional caution highlights the duality of the current market.

The juxtaposition of these trends underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s trajectory. While technical indicators like the MVRV 365DMA and Exchange Reserve data suggest a possible short-term rally, structural risks remain. The projected September 10 timeline, coupled with macroeconomic factors such as the Fed’s July 30 rate decision, could introduce additional volatility [2]. Currently, markets price in a 97.4% probability of no rate cut, which may influence broader market dynamics [2].

Investors are advised to monitor key thresholds, including the $119,500 resistance level, which could determine whether the rally extends to a new all-time high or accelerates a downturn. Diverging signals between on-chain metrics and institutional flows often precede significant market shifts, emphasizing the need for vigilance.

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin: Short-term rally, long-term risk? BTC faces double-top warning](https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-short-term-rally-long-term-risk-btc-faces-double-top-warning/)

[2] [Bitcoin News Today: U.S. Fed to Announce Rate Decision ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-fed-announce-rate-decision-july-30-97-4-probability-change-cut-spur-crypto-rally-2507/)