Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin faces critical test against gold as capital flow shifts loom

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Sunday, Aug 17, 2025 6:26 am ET2min read
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- Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin faces a critical juncture as its gold ratio nears 35 ounces per coin, a level last seen during its 2021 peak.

- A breakdown below this threshold could trigger capital shifts toward U.S. Treasuries, with yields potentially falling to 1.75%, signaling a broader risk-off market trend.

- Regulatory changes, including Fed's crypto oversight shutdown and SEC's surveillance overhaul, may further steer institutional capital away from digital assets toward traditional markets.

- Bitcoin's recent $118,266 price and gold's $4,000 surge highlight intensified competition between crypto and traditional safe-haven assets amid evolving macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin is at a critical

inflection point
as it faces a potential shift in investor flows, according to Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. McGlone has flagged the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio as a key indicator, noting that the metric has stalled near 35 ounces of gold per Bitcoin—a level previously seen during the 2021 peak [1]. He warned that if
Bitcoin
fails to defend this threshold, it could signal a move in capital toward U.S. Treasuries, marking them as the “next big trade” in the coming months [1].

McGlone’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold and the S&P 500 has been impressive in recent years, but it is now at a crossroads [1]. The Bitcoin-to-S&P 500 ratio currently stands at around 18.3, indicating the cryptocurrency’s resilience against equities [1]. However, the gold benchmark appears to be the more decisive marker for long-term positioning. A breakdown in the Bitcoin/gold ratio could signal a broader reversion in risk assets, foreshadowing pullbacks in both equities and crypto [1].

McGlone emphasized that the stalled Bitcoin/gold ratio is a top leading indicator, capable of signaling whether the market will continue its risk-on trajectory or revert to safer assets heading into late 2025 [1]. He noted that if Bitcoin breaks out above the 35-ounce level, it would reflect renewed confidence in risk assets; however, stagnation or a decline may point to capital shifting toward Treasuries, with yields potentially falling toward 1.75% [1].

Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has been notable, with the cryptocurrency surging past $124,000 to hit a record high earlier in the year [1]. However, it has since pulled back to around $118,266, trading well above the $100,000 level [1]. Gold has also seen strong gains, briefly targeting an all-time high of $4,000 [1]. This dual surge has heightened the competition between the two assets, with gold’s traditional role as a safe haven making it a formidable rival in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty [1].

The broader financial landscape is also evolving, with the Federal Reserve closing its dedicated crypto oversight program and the SEC reportedly considering major changes to its trading surveillance systems [2][3]. These regulatory shifts could influence institutional investor behavior, potentially steering capital away from digital assets toward more regulated or traditional alternatives [2]. As the regulatory environment becomes more complex, Bitcoin may find itself at a disadvantage unless it can solidify its role as a reliable store of value and medium of exchange [1].

Investor sentiment appears to be growing more cautious, with Bitcoin recently dipping below $116,000 after a sharp sell-off [4]. While trading volumes remain high, the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and regulatory developments suggests that the next few months could be pivotal in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory [4].

In summary, Bitcoin is facing a pivotal test against gold that could influence the direction of capital flows in 2025. The outcome will depend on whether the cryptocurrency can maintain its position as a leading speculative and digital store of value amid increasing competition from traditional assets and evolving regulatory conditions. If Bitcoin fails to hold key levels, it risks being abandoned in favor of more established safe havens [1].

Source:

[1] Mike McGlone, Strategist warns Bitcoin at risk of being abandoned for this ‘next big trade’, Finbold, https://finbold.com/strategist-warns-bitcoin-at-risk-of-being-abandoned-for-this-next-big-trade/

[2] Federal Reserve shutters dedicated crypto oversight program, POLITICO, https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/08/federal-reserve-crypto-oversight-00511819

[3] Atkins' SEC plots trading database overhaul, new crypto rules, POLITICO, https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/08/atkins-sec-plots-trading-database-overhaul-new-crypto-rules-00511654

[4] Bitcoin: News & Updates - Page 3 of 77 - CryptoDnes EN, CryptoDnes.bg, https://cryptodnes.bg/en/tag/bitcoin/page/3/