Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin faces bearish RSI divergence and open CME gaps as $115K retest looms

Bitcoin faces mounting technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term pullback, with key charts highlighting bearish divergence, open CME gaps, and a distribution zone. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break above $120,000 since mid-July, consolidating within a $115,000–$120,000 range as traders weigh the likelihood of a retest of critical support levels [1]. Analysts note that while the long-term bull trend remains intact, the immediate outlook is clouded by weakening momentum and historical price patterns.

A hidden bearish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) has emerged, with Bitcoin forming higher highs in price but lower highs in RSI readings. This divergence, observed in March 2024 prior to a 20% correction, raises concerns that a similar short-term decline could materialize [2]. The current pattern coincides with an open CME futures gap between $114,380 and $115,635—a void from off-hours trading that historical data suggests Bitcoin may "fill," pushing prices toward the $115,000 threshold [3]. Seven out of nine CME gaps in 2025 have already been closed, amplifying the probability of a near-term revisit to this level.

Anonymous crypto analyst Gaah highlighted that the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) has entered a distribution zone, a region historically associated with market peaks and heightened volatility. While the IBCI’s current reading at 80% falls short of the 100% levels seen during prior cycle tops, it still signals elevated corrective risk. Supporting metrics like the Puell Multiple and STH-SOPR remain below mid-levels, indicating that retail speculation and miner profit-taking have not yet reached critical mass [4]. This suggests the current phase is a warning signal rather than a definitive end-of-cycle top.

On-chain data from Mitrade underscores the market’s indecision, with Bitcoin confined to a $115K–$120K range for 10 consecutive days. The 50 and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs) cluster near $110K–$113K, reinforcing the significance of the $115K–$118K battleground. A sustained break below $115,724 could trigger a retracement to $113K, while a close above $122,000 might reignite a push toward $130K [5]. Analyst Axel Adler noted that the 30-day supply active metric has edged up to +2.4%, a sign of early-stage distribution but still far below the 18–20% peaks seen in prior bull cycles [6].

Price action in late July reflects cautious optimism. Despite a 2% intraday dip to $117,634 on July 24, Bitcoin has held above key SMAs with declining volume, a pattern typical of healthy consolidation. Market participants remain split: some view a $115K retest as necessary before a $135K surge, while others argue the $117K–$120K range offers sufficient support [7]. The absence of strong volume during recent $120K attempts highlights lingering hesitation among traders.

The broader market remains in a transitional phase, with Bitcoin’s performance influencing risk assets. A breakout above $122,000 could reignite bullish momentum, particularly if ETF inflows or macroeconomic catalysts resume. However, the current lack of conviction underscores the need for further clarity. As the market digests these signals, the $115K threshold will be pivotal in determining the next directional move.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin News Today: BTC consolidation near $115K–$120K signals $135K surge](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-btc-consolidation-115k-120k-signals-135k-surge-2507/)

[2] [Bitcoin is losing its bullish momentum: Is a drop to $115K next?](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-is-losing-its-bullish-momentum-is-a-drop-to-dollar115k-next?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound)

[3] [Bitcoin Eyes $115K Dip as Seller Exhaustion Builds Near $118K Zone](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/07-23-2025-bitcoin-price-news-bitcoin-eyes-115k-dip-as-seller-exhaustion-builds-near-118k-zone-27335236213818)

[4] [Bitcoin is losing its bullish momentum: Is a drop to $115K next?](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-is-losing-its-bullish-momentum-is-a-drop-to-dollar115k-next?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound)

[5] [Bitcoin Holders Still Reluctant To Sell – Supply Active Data](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-981284-20250724)

[6] [Supply Activity Signals Early Stage Of Bitcoin Macro Expansion](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-981284-20250724)

[7] [Ideas and Forecasts on Cryptocurrencies](https://in.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/ideas/)