Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces 50% Drop as MACD Bearishness Mirrors Past Crashes

Bitcoin's price could face a significant downturn as technical indicators and onchain data suggest a potential 50% correction, according to recent analyses. The monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram for BTC has turned bearish, a signal that has historically coincided with prolonged market declines. The negative reading, first observed in November 2025, marks the end of a bullish trend that began around $20,000 and signals a shift in momentum to bearish conditions according to technical analysis. This pattern mirrors past bearish MACD crossovers in 2022, 2018, and 2014, all of which preceded major price collapses. For instance, after a 2021 correction from $70,000 to $50,000, the 2022 bearish MACD crossover led to a further drop below $20,000.

The current bearish case is reinforced by broader macroeconomic risks, including Japan's fiscal strain, the dollar index's resilience, and Treasury yield stability despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Outflows from spot ETFs also add to the downward pressure. Onchain metrics like Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) bands further support the bearish outlook, showing BTC trading well above its historical gravity zone of −0.5σ, a level often seen during corrections according to analysis. Analysts project that prices could fall toward key support levels, including $84,500, $74,500, and potentially as low as $70,000 according to forecasts.

Price forecasts have shifted to include targets in the mid-$60,000s, with veteran trader Peter Brandt estimating a 50% decline from current levels if selling pressure accelerates. Historical data from 2014 to 2025 show that four of five bearish MACD crossovers were followed by roughly 50% drawdowns before stabilization. Since the October 2025 crossover, Bitcoin has already fallen 35%, leaving room for an additional 25% drop by January 2026, aligning with the 200-week EMA support at $66,300.

While institutional adoption of Bitcoin continues, with states like Texas purchasing $5 million in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF and planning a self-custodied $5 million BTC buy, these moves are seen as temporary measures. Texas's allocation is part of a $10 million strategy to hold Bitcoin directly once custody systems are finalized, highlighting evolving government sentiment toward the asset. However, such developments contrast with the technical bearishness, as the ETF purchase does not qualify under Texas's reserve rules, which require assets with a $500 billion market cap-Bitcoin meets this threshold, but ETFs do not according to Texas's reserve rules.

The bearish narrative is further compounded by Ether's confirmation of a death cross, a bearish pattern where the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day SMA according to analysis. This adds to the broader crypto market's vulnerability, with analysts urging traders to remain cautious for downside volatility.