Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin faces 30-40% drop risk below $100K as AI model warns of summer decline

Bitcoin faces heightened scrutiny as an AI-driven model forecasts a potential sharp price decline this summer, triggering concerns among market participants. According to the analysis, the cryptocurrency is currently testing critical support near $116,000, with a break below this level potentially pushing prices toward $105,000 or even below $100,000 by late August 2025 [1]. The warning comes as Bitcoin hovers near $117,970, a level that remains under pressure amid mixed signals from technical indicators and conflicting long-term forecasts [1].

The AI model highlighted key risks driving this bearish scenario, including slowing inflows into spot ETFs and broader market weakness. A surge in ETF demand, which fueled Bitcoin’s rally to over $123,000, saw a record $130.8 million influx on June 25 alone. However, recent trends suggest this momentum is waning, raising questions about the sustainability of current price levels [1]. Analysts at Citi acknowledge the uncertainty, projecting a base-case target of $135,000 by year-end but cautioning that a bearish scenario could see prices fall to as low as $64,000 [1].

The AI also emphasized Bitcoin’s growing correlation with the S&P 500, a shift that underscores the cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions. Regulatory actions or security breaches were flagged as potential catalysts for further declines, with the model estimating a 30–40% probability of Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 in the near term [1]. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified $116,800 as a pivotal support level, noting that a sustained break could open the door to accumulation opportunities around $110,000–$112,000 [1].

Amid these risks, contrasting perspectives persist. Some analysts, such as those at B2binpay and Markets and Company, have drawn attention to the $98,300 support level, warning that a sustained close below this threshold could trigger a 17% drop to $85,400 [2]. Conversely, long-term optimism remains buoyed by institutional adoption and macroeconomic trends, with figures like Matt Hougan forecasting a “breakout year” for Bitcoin in 2026 [2]. This divergence highlights the complexity of assessing Bitcoin’s trajectory, where short-term volatility coexists with bullish expectations for future growth.

The debate over AI’s role in financial forecasting adds another layer to the discussion. While algorithmic models provide rapid, data-driven insights, their limitations in accounting for unpredictable events—such as regulatory shifts or geopolitical developments—remain a point of contention [2]. For investors, the challenge lies in balancing these immediate risks with the broader narrative of Bitcoin’s long-term adoption. Traders are advised to monitor key technical levels closely, particularly as the summer season progresses and market dynamics evolve.

Source: [1] [AI Model Issues Warning: Bitcoin Could See Sharp Decline This Summer] [https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68857eba1395373d500baf6d/]

[2] [Bitcoin Must Hold Above $98300 to Avoid 17% Drop, ...] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-hold-98-300-avoid-17-drop-analysts-warn-2507/]