Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Faces 20% Drop Risk Amid Bearish Divergence and CME Gap Below $115,000

Bitcoin faces mounting technical pressures that could trigger a short-term correction amid bearish signals from key indicators. A hidden bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests weakening bullish momentum, while an unfilled CME futures gap near $115,000 acts as a potential price magnet. Additionally, the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) has entered a distribution zone, signaling elevated corrective risks. These factors collectively point to a heightened likelihood of near-term volatility, though analysts emphasize that a broader bull cycle remains intact [1].

The RSI divergence emerges as a critical warning sign. Bitcoin’s price has recently set higher highs while the RSI fails to confirm with matching peaks, a pattern historically followed by significant corrections. For instance, a similar divergence in March 2024 preceded a 20% price drop. This technical mismatch implies that upward momentum is faltering, raising the probability of a pullback to test the $114,000–$115,000 support range [1]. Traders are advised to monitor this indicator closely, as sustained weakness could accelerate the sell-off.

The CME gap between $114,380 and $115,635 further reinforces downward potential. This gap, created when Bitcoin’s price skipped a range due to CME’s trading hours, has historically been filled as markets retrace to close untraded levels. With seven of nine CME gaps in 2025 already resolved, the probability of revisiting this zone has increased. Historical patterns suggest the gap could act as a price magnet, drawing Bitcoin lower to fill the void, aligning with the bearish RSI signal [1].

Crypto analyst Gaah notes that the IBCI’s entry into the distribution zone amplifies the risk of corrections. While the current reading of 80% indicates early-stage distribution, metrics like the Puell Multiple and Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) remain below mid-level thresholds. This suggests retail speculation and miner profit-taking have not yet peaked, leaving room for further volatility without signaling an imminent cycle top [1]. The distribution phase typically precedes consolidation or intermediate corrections, urging investors to exercise caution.

Market dynamics at the CME gap highlight strategic opportunities for traders. Filling the $115,000 range could coincide with increased volume and volatility, offering potential entry or exit points. However, the interplay between futures market activity and spot price movements underscores the need for caution. Analysts recommend integrating these technical signals into risk management strategies to navigate the impending correction [1].

While the confluence of RSI divergence, CME gaps, and IBCI trends points to a near-term dip, broader market fundamentals remain supportive of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. The correction should not be interpreted as the end of the bull cycle but rather a cyclical pause. Investors are advised to maintain disciplined strategies, leveraging technical indicators to balance risk and opportunity in this evolving landscape [1].

Source: [1] [Bitcoin May Face Short-Term Dip Amid Bearish Divergence and CME Gap Below $115,000 July 24, 2025] [https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-may-face-short-term-dip-amid-bearish-divergence-and-cme-gap-below-115000/]