Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Eyes New Highs but $400,000 Unlikely This Cycle

Bitcoin is currently trading above $115,000, prompting speculation about its potential to reach $400,000 during this cycle. However, prominent analyst ฿LUE WHALΞ argues that such a price level is unlikely based on historical data and market indicators. In a detailed analysis on X, he cautions against relying on speculative predictions and highlights the importance of using measurable signals to assess Bitcoin’s trajectory.

According to ฿LUE WHALΞ, each bull cycle is marked by inflated price forecasts, many of which lack foundational reasoning. He emphasizes that traders should not wait for a specific price target before exiting or taking profits. Instead, real-time market data provides a more reliable guide for decision-making [1].

The analyst pointed to the Pi Cycle Top indicator, a tool that uses two moving averages to identify historical price peaks. In past cycles, the peak was marked when the faster line crossed above the slower one. This crossover has not yet occurred, suggesting that Bitcoin still has room to rise but is not yet at its top [1].

Additionally, the Rainbow Chart, which uses Bitcoin’s historical price to project potential future levels, indicates the market is only in the middle of the cycle. According to this model, Bitcoin could move up one or two levels, but reaching $400,000 would require an extraordinary event not currently on the horizon [1].

Another key metric is the MVRV Z-score, which evaluates whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. In past cycles, the score reached around 7 at peak prices, but it has not yet surpassed 4 in this cycle. ฿LUE WHALΞ views this as a sign that the market is not yet overbought and still has potential for further gains [1].

The analyst also referenced Google Trends data, noting that Bitcoin-related searches remain low compared to historical peaks. High retail demand is typically a signal of a market nearing its top, so the current low search volume suggests that retail investors have not yet fully entered the market [1].

He warned traders against relying on influencers or high-profile investors for timing signals. History shows that Bitcoin peaks when everyday investors start buying in, and this is when institutional investors tend to exit. The focus should be on recognizing these patterns rather than chasing unrealistic forecasts [1].

The analyst also examined altcoin activity as a cycle marker. Ethereum has recently gained over 50% against Bitcoin, indicating capital is beginning to shift from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies. However, the full altcoin season—where capital flows into smaller projects—has not yet materialized, suggesting Bitcoin is not yet at its peak [1].

In conclusion, ฿LUE WHALΞ asserts that while Bitcoin is not yet at its top, $400,000 is not a realistic target for this cycle based on current data. Investors who monitor real-time indicators and avoid hype-driven decisions are likely to make the most informed choices [1].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Won’t Top at $400,000 This Cycle: Here’s What Data Shows (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6894ab78f84a902adb0b4830/)