Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Eyes $130K As U.S.-EU Trade Pact M2 Surge and FOMC Outlook Drive Momentum

Bitcoin’s price trajectory this week has drawn attention to four pivotal factors that analysts suggest could influence its movement beyond $130,000. A recent macroeconomic analysis by crypto expert Doctor Profit highlights developments ranging from trade policy shifts to monetary supply trends, offering a framework for understanding potential volatility [1].

The U.S.-EU trade deal, announced amid growing concerns over a potential tariff war, has been flagged as a bullish catalyst. Doctor Profit described the agreement as one of the most significant trade developments since 2016, emphasizing its role in reducing geopolitical risks and fostering a more stable economic environment. The analyst noted that easing tensions between two major economies could indirectly benefit Bitcoin by boosting risk-on sentiment and institutional confidence [1]. This follows Bitcoin’s recent technical breakout from a long-term diagonal resistance tied to its 2021 high, a move that retested support levels before continuing its upward trend [1].

On the supply side, short-term fluctuations drew attention when wallet activity from Galaxy Digital temporarily triggered fears of a selloff, pushing Bitcoin down to $114,500. However, Doctor Profit attributed the dip to a “shakeout” rather than a sign of weakness, citing strong ETF inflows that have consistently outpaced Bitcoin’s daily issuance. Institutional absorption of supply, led by entities like BlackRock, further reinforces underlying demand. The analyst also highlighted that long-term whale wallets remain inactive, suggesting ongoing accumulation by large holders [1].

Monetary policy trends add another layer of complexity. Doctor Profit pointed to a 2.3% year-to-date increase in M2 money supply, including a 0.63% surge between May and June—the largest monthly jump in 2025. Historically, Bitcoin has correlated with M2 expansion, as seen during the 2020 liquidity surge that drove an 800% rally. Based on a typical 60-90 day lag in Bitcoin’s response to monetary shifts, the analyst forecasts a potential 15-17.5% rise to above $130,000 in the coming weeks [1].

The upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday introduces further uncertainty. While the Federal Reserve maintains a “hawkish” stance with only a 5% probability of a rate cut, Doctor Profit noted a growing disconnect between Chair Jerome Powell’s rhetoric and the Fed’s liquidity expansion. The analyst speculated that the central bank may be preparing for future quantitative easing, a move that historically has bolstered Bitcoin’s performance due to its sensitivity to monetary policy shifts [1].

The convergence of these factors—geopolitical stability, supply dynamics, monetary expansion, and central bank policy—creates a multifaceted backdrop for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Analysts continue to monitor technical levels and macroeconomic indicators for confirmation of sustained momentum, as the cryptocurrency navigates a market increasingly influenced by global economic narratives.

Source: [1] This Week In Bitcoin: 4 Things To Keep An Eye On That Could Impact Price (https://bitcoinist.com/this-week-in-bitcoin/)