Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Eyes $125K by 2025 as Institutions Bet on Dovish Fed Shifts

Major financial institutions are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook, citing potential dovish monetary policy shifts as key catalysts for a price surge. Analysts and institutional investors are forecasting that Bitcoin could surpass $125,000 by September 2025, driven by anticipated easing from central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve. This optimism is underpinned by recent on-chain data showing Bitcoin trading near $119,000 and a notable rise in institutional purchases [3].

Bitcoin’s price movement has remained within a $117,000–$123,000 range in early August 2025, as traders await the Fed’s policy decision and potential tariff relief as possible triggers for a breakout above $120,000. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed the GENIUS Act, a legislative measure aimed at promoting crypto innovation and regulatory clarity, further enhancing institutional interest [1]. Despite the bullish sentiment, fading spot ETF inflows and declining trading volume suggest that momentum may be slowing, especially as Q3 typically brings increased volatility and reduced liquidity [2].

Ethereum has shown relative strength in recent weeks, with its price rising 3.60% on a weekly basis and ETF inflows remaining robust. Its 10th anniversary of the mainnet launch on July 30 is being seen as a symbolic milestone. A breakout above $4,000 could boost broader market confidence and reinforce Ethereum’s position as a top digital asset. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s ETF inflows have been relatively modest compared to Ethereum, with a median daily inflow of $130.8 million versus $332.2 million for ETH [6].

The broader macroeconomic environment also appears supportive of risk-on sentiment. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose 0.69% to 98.65, reflecting a stronger greenback amid mixed economic signals. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.40%, while gold declined 2.01% to $3,317 per ounce, indicating a reduced flight to traditional safe havens. Equities have also shown strength, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.33% and the Nasdaq 100 rising 0.76% week-over-week [6].

Looking ahead, the market is closely watching for any dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, with a 97% probability of no rate change priced in for the July 30 decision. If the Fed hints at easing policy and key macroeconomic data remain stable, it could reignite upward momentum for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Conversely, a hawkish stance or unexpected data could keep Bitcoin range-bound or even trigger a pullback.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong, as evidenced by increased purchases and growing allocations from strategic investors. The potential for renewed liquidity and further institutional inflows could reinforce Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, particularly if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s future performance may also be influenced by corporate and national adoption trends, as well as regulatory developments that could shape its long-term trajectory [3].

The broader crypto market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with investors looking for catalysts such as a Fed dovish pivot, regulatory clarity, or sustained strength in key assets like Ethereum. Bitcoin’s consolidation near the $120,000 level continues to be a focal point for institutional investors, who are closely monitoring for signs of a potential shift in sentiment [3].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Hits $123K as U.S. Passes GENIUS Act (https://blog.amberdata.io/bitcoin-hits-123k-as-u.s.-passes-genius-act)

[2] Bitcoin Eyes $123K But Q3 Data Could Stall Price Discovery (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bulls-aim-to-chase-liquidity-at-dollar122k-but-q3-seasonality-could-stall-breakouts)

[3] Bitcoin Stalls in $117K–$120K Corridor as Fed, Tariffs & On ... (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-stalls-in-117k-usd-120k-usd)

[6] TA Tuesday: Ethereum Turns 10 - USD 4000 in Sight (https://www.crypto-finance.com/n-upbeat-as-equities-rally-volatility-drops-and-macro-eyes-shift-to-the-fed-and-labor-data/)