Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Eyes $122K as Q3 Seasonality and Fading Onchain Momentum Threaten Breakout

Bitcoin’s price action has drawn focus to the $122,000 level, a critical threshold where bulls aim to capitalize on accumulated liquidity, but analysts caution that Q3 seasonal trends and weakening onchain metrics could impede a sustained breakout. The cryptocurrency briefly dipped below $117,000 earlier this week, triggering $100 million in liquidations as it absorbed internal liquidity between $117,000 and $119,000. This price range, however, offers limited buy-side support until $114,500, leaving the path of least resistance skewed higher in the short term. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the four-hour chart continues to act as dynamic support, limiting near-term downside risk [1].

The $122,000–$123,200 range has emerged as a focal point due to clustered sell-side liquidity and previous resistance levels. Liquidation data reveals $2 billion in short positions could be vulnerable to liquidation near $121,600, creating a potential catalyst for a rally [2]. Yet, structural challenges persist. A double top formation near Bitcoin’s all-time high suggests buyer fatigue, and failure to break above $123,200 could validate a bearish pattern. Onchain metrics reinforce this caution: the relative strength index (RSI) has fallen sharply to 51.7 from 74.4, while daily trading volumes dropped to $8.6 billion, signaling waning participation. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have also declined 80% week-over-week to $496 million, reflecting cooling institutional demand [1].

Seasonal trends further complicate the outlook. Historical August returns show over 60% of trading days closing in the red, with an average loss of 2.56%. Combined with reduced onchain activity—falling active addresses and transfer volumes—this suggests BTC could face retracement pressures in the coming weeks [2]. Analysts note that 96.9% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit, heightening the risk of profit-taking, while elevated futures open interest ($45.6 billion) and rising long-side funding indicate growing overconfidence among bullish participants [1].

Despite these headwinds, external catalysts could disrupt the narrative. The U.S. White House is expected to release a strategic crypto policy report this week, which may introduce a Bitcoin Reserve Framework and delta-neutral accumulation strategies. Such developments could boost ETF inflows and treasury-building efforts, potentially reigniting upward momentum. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting remains a key event, with any dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell—particularly hints at a September rate cut—likely to drive speculative buying and push BTC toward $123,000 [2].

The interplay between technical resistance, macroeconomic factors, and policy developments underscores the fragility of Bitcoin’s current trajectory. While bulls target liquidity clusters above $122,000, the confluence of weak onchain fundamentals and historical seasonality suggests a protracted battle for dominance. Market participants will closely monitor ETF redemptions, institutional on-chain activity, and policy announcements to gauge whether short-term volatility can overcome structural headwinds [1].

Sources:

[1] title1: Bitcoin Eyes $123K But Q3 Data Could Stall Price Discovery (url1: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bulls-aim-to-chase-liquidity-at-dollar122k-but-q3-seasonality-could-stall-breakouts)

[2] title2: BTCUSD - Bitcoin bulls aim to chase liquidity at $122K, but Q3 ... (url2: https://mx.advfn.com/bolsa-de-valores/COIN/BTCUSD/crypto-news/96518507/bitcoin-bulls-aim-to-chase-liquidity-at-122k-but)