Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Exodus to Treasuries Sparks $125K Surge as Supply Tightens

Bitcoin's price surged to a new all-time high of $125,700 on October 3, 2025, as exchange-held balances plummeted to their lowest level in six years, signaling robust investor confidence and a potential supply shock in the market. According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, the total Bitcoin balance on centralized exchanges dropped to 2.83 million BTC, while CryptoQuant reported a slightly lower figure of 2.45 million BTC, both representing seven-year lows. Over the past two weeks, more than 114,000 BTC-worth over $14 billion-left exchanges, indicating a shift toward long-term self-custody, institutional treasuries, and ETFs. This trend suggests holders are less inclined to sell, reducing immediate market liquiditytitle1^[1].

The decline in exchange balances has historical parallels to bullish cycles. The last time Bitcoin's on-exchange supply fell below 2.9 million BTC was in June 2019, during a bear market when prices hovered around $8,000. Analysts note that such lows often precede significant price rallies, as reduced available supply can trigger buying frenzies. VanEck's Matthew Sigel highlighted the urgency in the market, stating, "Monday 9:30 am might be the first official shortage," while OTC desk operators warned of potential sell-out scenarios within hours if prices do not stabilize above $126,000title1^[1].

Institutional adoption and spot ETF inflows have accelerated the exodus of Bitcoin from exchanges. Over 100,000 BTC has been transferred to corporate treasuries since April 2025, with companies like MicroStrategy, ProCap Financial, and GameStop leading the charge. ETF trust custody wallets now hold over 800,000 BTC, further draining exchange reserves. S&P Global reported overwhelming demand for Bitcoin ETFs, with institutional investors including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley accumulating assetstitle1^[1]. This shift aligns with broader macroeconomic trends, as investors seek hard assets amid rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, according to economist Noelle Acheson.

The price surge to $125K was fueled by a combination of factors, including the U.S. government shutdown, which pushed Bitcoin to within 1% of its record high. Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick noted that Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. government risk has intensified, differentiating this rally from previous cycles. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts and weak labor data have heightened demand for alternative assets. On-chain metrics also suggest a "pre-euphoria" phase, with the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio indicating growing profitability for long-term holders-a precursor to historical bull market peakstitle12^[6].

Market participants remain cautiously optimistic. While Bitcoin's price dipped to $112,000 in early October, triggering over $1 billion in long liquidations, bulls argue the correction is temporary. Traders like Jelle on X emphasized the importance of reclaiming the $118,000 support level to rekindle upward momentum. Analysts warn of further volatility, with potential liquidation clusters between $106,000 and $108,000, but also highlight the resilience of long-term holders. Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen noted that corporate Bitcoin holdings surged 63% in Q4 2024, driven by firms like MicroStrategy, which has accumulated 471,107 BTC to datetitle6^[5].

Forecasts for Bitcoin's future remain bullish. Standard Chartered predicts a price target of $200,000 by year-end 2025, while SkyBridge's Anthony Scaramucci and Bitwise's Matt Hougan see potential for $200,000 to $500,000 if a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve materializes. However, these projections are attributed to analysts, with no guarantees of market outcomestitle6^[5]. The current dynamics-low exchange balances, strong institutional demand, and macroeconomic tailwinds-underscore Bitcoin's evolving role as a global store of value and hedge against traditional market risks.