Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Euphoria Hinges on STH-LTH Power Shift

Bitcoin's market dynamics are shifting as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, a key on-chain indicator, suggests the cryptocurrency is entering a "euphoria" stage. With Bitcoin (BTC) trading near $112,500, the NUPL ratio—tracking unrealized gains and losses for long-term holders (LTHs)—has climbed to 0.69, hovering just below the traditional euphoria threshold of 0.75, according to a Bitget report. This reading, combined with institutional-driven demand and a maturing market structure, has sparked debate over whether the current rally is nearing a peak or has room to grow.

The NUPL metric, which measures the proportion of Bitcoin's circulating supply held in profit versus loss, has historically correlated with market tops. Currently, 97% of BTC is in profit, a sign of strong investor confidence but also a potential warning of limited upside without consolidation, according to a Cointelegraph report. Notably, the ratio of short-term holders (STHs) to LTHs is shifting, with STHs now controlling 44% of the realized cap—a record high, a trend Cointelegraph also highlights. This suggests newer investors are inheriting supply from older, profit-taking holders, a pattern seen in previous bull cycles before blow-off tops.

The current bull run is being driven by unprecedented institutional adoption and the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. These products, managed by firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, have injected $219 billion in assets under management by early September 2025, stabilizing Bitcoin's price and reducing volatility, according to a MarketMinute article. Institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds and pension funds, have become major "strong hands," absorbing sell pressure and reinforcing Bitcoin's legitimacy as a macro asset, an OKX analysis found (an OKX analysis).

Meanwhile, the April 2024 halving event, which cut miner rewards in half, coincided with a surge in ETF inflows. This dual supply-side and demand-side shift has pushed Bitcoin's price to over $124,000 by August 2025, far exceeding historical post-halving trajectories, a point the MarketMinute article also outlines. Analysts attribute this to institutional buying outpacing newly mined supply, creating a structural imbalance that favors long-term accumulation, as that MarketMinute piece notes.

On-chain data reveals a complex interplay between STHs and LTHs. The STH realized price—a metric indicating the average cost basis of short-term holders—is currently around $112,500, acting as both support and resistance, according to a CoinSurges analysis. Bitcoin's price action has been oscillating around this level, with bulls attempting to hold above $110,000 to avoid a deeper correction; CoinSurges also points out that if the price slips below this threshold, the next critical support lies in the $100,000–$107,000 range, a confluence of the 200-day moving average and historical accumulation zones.

Technical analysts also highlight a descending channel breakout, with Bitcoin surpassing $108,800 and projecting an upside target of $146,400, according to a TradingNews report. This scenario assumes sustained institutional inflows and a continuation of the current euphoric sentiment, though volatility remains a risk as the market navigates geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic shifts.

Legislative developments, such as the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the CLARITY Act, have further institutionalized Bitcoin's role in global finance, as also discussed in the MarketMinute article. These measures aim to integrate digital assets into traditional portfolios while addressing regulatory ambiguities. However, challenges persist, including environmental concerns and potential centralization risks from mining consolidation, points the MarketMinute piece raises.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin's trajectory hinges on balancing institutional demand with retail participation. While the current euphoria suggests a mature bull market, experts caution that a decline in STH dominance could signal the start of a renewed accumulation phase led by LTHs, an outcome Cointelegraph has highlighted. With ETF inflows continuing and macroeconomic tailwinds from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, Bitcoin's price could test new all-time highs in late 2025 or early 2026, the MarketMinute analysis suggests.

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