Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin ETFs Surge on $1.2B Inflows, Fueling Bullish Price Outlook

Bitcoin's price trajectory has become a focal point for investors and analysts, with recent on-chain signals and macroeconomic factors suggesting a potential upward trend. As of early October 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has tested and briefly exceeded $126,000, driven by record inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, weaker real yields, and a "debasement trade" favoring hard assets like gold and BTC. The price has since consolidated near $121–$125K, with volatility persisting but no immediate collapse observed Reuters^[1].

1. : U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, have attracted substantial capital. In a single day, U.S. ETFs recorded $1.2 billion in net inflows, with IBIT capturing $970 million. Global crypto ETFs saw $5.95 billion in inflows by October 4, 2025, underscoring physical demand The Block^[2].

2. : Declining real U.S. yields and a weaker dollar have bolstered demand for BTC as a hedge against currency devaluation. The U.S. 10-year real yield has eased to ~1.80%, and markets anticipate a Fed rate cut by December 2025, further supporting BTC The Guardian^[3].

3. : Corporate treasuries and sovereign allocations have normalized Bitcoin as a store of value. Luxembourg's sovereign wealth fund allocated 1% of its portfolio to regulated BTC ETFs, and ETFs now hold 6.6% of Bitcoin's total supply Economic Times^[4].

Analysts present three primary scenarios for BTC's price direction:

- : Sustained ETF inflows, falling real yields, and a weaker dollar could push BTC to $135–$200K by year-end. Standard Chartered analysts and bullish institutions like Bernstein project $150–$200K ranges under this scenario Reuters^[1].

- : Moderate ETF flows and stable macro conditions may see BTC range between $95K–$140K, with intermittent volatility. This aligns with ARK Invest's assessment of mid-cycle consolidation .

- : Rising real yields, a stronger dollar, or regulatory shocks could trigger a correction to $70–$95K. Recent liquidation events, such as the $19 billion wipeout on Hyperliquid, highlight short-term fragility .

- : At 1.16, the ratio of BTC's spot price to its 200-week moving average suggests room for expansion. A Mayer Multiple of 2.4 would imply a price target of $180K The Guardian^[3].

- : 94.5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in profit, a bullish on-chain metric. However, 30% supply density near current prices signals potential volatility .

- : Immediate support sits at $117K, with resistance at $126.2K. A breakout above $126.2K could target $130K–$132K, while a breakdown below $117K risks testing $108K The Guardian^[3].

- : A coordinated regulatory clampdown or hawkish Fed surprises could destabilize ETF demand.

- : Futures open interest and funding rates have risen, with annualized funding exceeding 8%, indicating leveraged long positions that could amplify short-term corrections Economic Times^[4].

- : For long-term holders, dollar-cost averaging into dips between $95K–$110K is advised. Swing traders may target range-bound opportunities, while short-term traders should avoid directional bets ahead of macro events Reuters^[1].

The broader market structure remains robust, supported by institutional demand and a maturing on-chain environment. However, elevated leverage and geopolitical uncertainties necessitate caution. As ETF inflows and macro dynamics evolve, Bitcoin's price discovery will hinge on the interplay of these factors, with the fourth quarter offering a critical test for sustained momentum.