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Bitcoin's on-chain metrics and market dynamics are painting a mixed picture as the cryptocurrency grapples with a post-October rally correction. The STH-MVRV (spendable time held over realized value) ratio, a key indicator of investor sentiment, has rebounded from a local low, sparking optimism among analysts that
could stabilize and potentially climb toward $115,000–$120,000. This comes amid a broader market downturn, with Bitcoin shedding nearly 18% from its record high of $126,000 reached in early October, according to .The recent pullback has seen Bitcoin dip to as low as $99,607, according to CoinGecko data, while on-chain analyst Mow has remained bullish, arguing that the market still holds upside potential as Bitcoin continues to outperform the U.S. inflation rate of 3%. However, the broader crypto ecosystem is facing significant outflows. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a massive $558.44 million in outflows on November 7, the second-largest single-day withdrawal since their launch, led by Fidelity's FBTC and BlackRock's IBIT, according to
. Cumulative inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs now stand at $59.97 billion, but the recent exodus highlights investor caution.
Meanwhile, American Bitcoin (ABTC), the Trump-backed Bitcoin treasury and mining firm, expanded its holdings to 4,004
(worth $415 million) between October 24 and November 5, driven by a dual strategy of mining and at-market purchases, according to . The company, now the 25th largest corporate Bitcoin holder, mirrors MicroStrategy's accumulation model but operates under tighter margins. MicroStrategy itself added 397 BTC in late October, boosting its holdings to 641,205 BTC valued at $47.5 billion, according to .The legal landscape also remains contentious. A federal appeals court ruled on Tuesday that Michael Prime, a man convicted of identity theft, cannot sue the government over the FBI's seizure and wiping of a hard drive containing 3,443 BTC (now worth $345 million), according to
.Privacy-focused protocols are gaining traction amid the volatility. Zcash's token (ZEC) has surged above $500 for the first time since 2018, driven by endorsements from figures like Arthur Hayes and Naval Ravikant, according to
. The rise reflects a broader trend of renewed interest in privacy-centric cryptocurrencies.As the market digests these developments, investors remain split. While Bitcoin's STH-MVRV rebound and strategic corporate buying offer hope for a rebound, ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainties—such as the U.S. government shutdown—weigh on sentiment. The coming weeks will likely determine whether the $115k–$120k target becomes a reality or if further consolidation is needed.
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