Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin ETFs See $1.1B in Outflows as Selling Pressure Deepens Below Key Averages

Bitcoin's price continues to stall near $87,000 despite repeated attempts to push higher, as on-chain data and market sentiment reveal deepening selling pressure and waning institutional interest. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1.1 billion in net outflows over the past six days, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC leading the exodus. The outflows coincide with a bearish technical setup, as Bitcoin remains below key moving averages and faces resistance near $90,000.

Analysts point to seasonal factors, such as "holiday positioning" and thinner liquidity, as primary drivers of the recent outflows. Vincent Liu of Kronos Research noted that such outflows are typical during the year-end holiday period, with flows expected to normalize once institutions return in early January. However, the prolonged net outflows into crypto ETFs suggest a broader shift in institutional behavior, with large allocators pulling back after a year of aggressive crypto exposure.

Meanwhile, on-chain metrics highlight extreme selling dominance, with Bitcoin's buy/sell pressure delta reaching a three-year low. Short-term holders are in a rare equilibrium, with net pressure readings near zero, indicating a lack of conviction among traders. Axel Adler Jr. of CryptoQuant observed that such a neutral zone often precedes a major directional shift in price.

Why the Standoff Happened

Bitcoin's current struggle is tied to a confluence of factors, including heavy ETF outflows, weak institutional demand, and elevated selling pressure. Since early November, the 30-day moving average of net flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs has remained negative, signaling a sustained withdrawal of capital from the asset class. Glassnode analysts have pointed to this trend as a potential indicator of a broader institutional retreat from crypto, following a year in which institutions played a dominant role in market dynamics.

The selling pressure is also evident in the behavior of on-chain participants. Data from Alphractal shows that Bitcoin is experiencing a surge in market sell orders, overwhelming buyers and pushing the price lower. Despite this, some analysts argue that the market may be nearing a bottom. Joao Wedson of Alphractal noted that such extreme selling is rarely sustainable and could indicate the start of a consolidation phase.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market watchers are closely monitoring several key indicators to gauge Bitcoin's next move. The holder retention rate, as analyzed by Glassnode, has been on an upward trend, suggesting that more investors are holding onto their Bitcoin rather than selling during the downturn. This growing confidence among long-term holders could help stabilize the price by reducing the supply of available coins for short-term trading.

The buy/sell index, as analyzed by Axel Adler Jr., remains at elevated levels, signaling a risk-on environment for short sellers. Adler warned that the current regime favors short positions, with buying volume insufficient to sustain a meaningful rally. However, he also noted that historical patterns indicate that when the 30-day index climbs above 70, correction phases often follow, with average drawdowns of 15–20%.

Another key area of focus is the potential return of institutional flows in early January. Vincent Liu predicted that as institutions return from the holidays, capital flows will normalize, potentially supporting a rebound in ETF demand. Liu also highlighted the potential impact of Federal Reserve policy, noting that markets are already pricing in 75–100 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, which could provide further tailwinds for crypto assets.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite signs of potential stabilization, Bitcoin's path remains fraught with uncertainty. The market is currently in a high-risk environment, with on-chain metrics indicating an overheated regime. Short-term traders must remain cautious, as the current balance between buyers and sellers is fragile. A decisive breakdown below the $85,000 level could trigger further selling, especially if the net pressure indicator drops below -15.

The broader macroeconomic landscape also poses risks, with macroeconomic shifts capable of amplifying existing selling pressure. Investors are advised to avoid chasing short-term bounces and instead focus on confirmed accumulation phases. On-chain signals, such as the holder retention rate and CDD trends, will remain crucial for timing entries around key support levels.

As the market awaits a potential catalyst, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can break free from its current range or if the bearish momentum will continue. For now, patience and risk management remain essential strategies for investors navigating this volatile environment.