Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's ETF Optimism vs. Bearish Signals of 70% Correction

Bitcoin fell below $114,000 in October 2025, sparking mixed reactions from investors as market dynamics shifted between institutional optimism and bearish technical signals. The price decline, which left Bitcoin 12% off its all-time high of $126,080, coincided with significant on-chain activity from major players like SpaceX and Tesla, while ETF inflows and regulatory developments added complexity to the narrative, according to Arkham data.

SpaceX, Elon Musk's aerospace company, moved $133 million in Bitcoin across wallets in late October, according to blockchain analytics firm Arkham. The transfers included 300 BTC ($33 million) and 915 BTC ($100.7 million), marking the third such move in a week. This activity followed earlier reports that SpaceX held approximately 25,724 BTC in early 2021, though the firm reportedly wrote down $373 million in Bitcoin holdings during 2021–2022. Meanwhile, Tesla—another Musk-led entity—maintained 11,509 BTC valued at over $1.27 billion, placing it just outside the top ten publicly traded companies with Bitcoin exposure. The automaker's prior sale of 75% of its Bitcoin in 2022 for $936 million highlighted its cautious approach to crypto volatility.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin surged as spot ETFs absorbed $90.6 million in new inflows on October 24, ending a five-day outflow streak. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC led the charge, with $32.68 million and $57.92 million in inflows, respectively. The rally pushed Bitcoin to $111,633, a seven-day high, as ETF assets under management reached $149.96 billion—6.78% of Bitcoin's total market cap, according to TradingNews. This institutional rebound contrasted with Ethereum ETFs, which recorded $243.9 million in outflows, signaling a rotation of capital toward Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative.

However, technical indicators cast a shadow over the bullish momentum. A bearish crossover of the MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) on the monthly timeframe triggered warnings of a potential 70% correction. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin's price had historically dropped 70% on four prior occasions when this indicator turned negative, including the 2021–2022 slump to $16,000. At current levels, a similar decline would target $33,000, according to a Bitcoinist analysis. On-chain data from CryptoQuant offered a more nuanced view, showing that large holders—dubbed the "Dolphin cohort"—controlled 26% of Bitcoin's supply and were still accumulating, albeit at a slower pace than in earlier bull cycles, according to a Benzinga report.

Regulatory and macroeconomic factors further complicated the outlook. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reviewed 155 crypto ETF applications, while easing inflation and anticipated Fed rate cuts fueled risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin's correlation with gold (0.76) and tech equities strengthened, attracting cross-asset flows, as TradingNews noted. Yet, market participants remained cautious, with volatility averaging 39% in October compared to 62% in July.

New entrants in the mining sector, such as BitFuFu (FUFU), added another layer to the story. The company launched the ANTMINER S21+ Hyd., a hydro-cooled miner with 358 TH/s performance and energy efficiency of 15 J/TH. Priced at $15.3 per terahash, the offering aimed to capitalize on Bitcoin's potential for a new bull run, according to a GuruFocus report. Meanwhile, American Bitcoin (ABTC) bolstered its strategic reserve to 3,865 BTC, leveraging integrated mining operations to reduce acquisition costs, according to Yahoo Finance.

Bitcoin's price hovered near $110,500, with key resistance at $115,000 and support at $100,000. Analysts emphasized that sustained ETF inflows and renewed accumulation by large holders would be critical for a breakout to $125,000–$130,000, as TradingNews reported. For now, the market balanced optimism over institutional adoption with cautionary technical signals, underscoring the fragile equilibrium in a crypto landscape still navigating its transition to mainstream finance.