Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Trigger Supply Shock, Push BTC to $126K ATH

Bitcoin ETF inflows reached a record $1.21 billion on October 6, 2025, marking the largest single-day inflow of the year and the sixth consecutive day of substantial capital inflows, totaling $4.35 billion since July 10, 2025. This surge, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which absorbed $969.95 million, coincided with Bitcoin (BTC) hitting an all-time high (ATH) of over $126,000. The trend has reinforced the "Uptober" narrative, historically a strong month for crypto markets, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracting $5.95 billion in weekly inflows as of October 7, 2025. These inflows have propelled BTC's market capitalization to new heights, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now commanding $169.48 billion in net assets-6.79% of BTC's total market cap.

Historical patterns further validate the bullish momentum. Since the inception of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, $1 billion inflow surges have consistently aligned with short-term BTC price peaks. For instance, inflows on March 12, 2024, preceded BTC's $74,000 peak two days later, while similar inflows in November 2024 and January 2025 coincided with price rallies to $100,000 and $109,000, respectively. The most recent $1.2 billion inflow on October 6, 2025, has mirrored this trend, with BTC climbing above $126,000. Analysts note that such inflows create a "supply shock," as ETFs absorb Bitcoin at a rate exceeding new mining supply, tightening liquidity and driving prices higher.

Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has expressed confidence in record Q4 2025 ETF inflows, predicting annual flows will exceed the $36 billion recorded in 2024. Hougan attributes this optimism to the recent approval of major wealth managers like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo to allocate client assets to Bitcoin ETFs. In October 2025, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee explicitly endorsed crypto allocations for risk-tolerant investors, with suggested allocations of up to 4%. These institutional moves signal a broader shift in adoption, with Hougan emphasizing that "pent-up demand" among advisors will drive meaningful Q4 inflows.

Technical and macroeconomic factors further support the bullish outlook. Analysts highlight Bitcoin's inverse head-and-shoulders breakout as a key catalyst, with a close above $125,000 potentially unlocking a target of $131,000. On-chain data also reveals robust demand, with monthly spot demand growing by over 62,000 BTC since July 2025-similar to patterns preceding past Q4 rallies. Standard Chartered and CryptoQuant have projected BTC reaching $200,000 by year-end, citing favorable conditions such as the Federal Reserve's rate-cut expectations and the post-halving supply dynamics.

The institutional embrace of Bitcoin ETFs is reshaping the market structure. BlackRock's IBIT, now nearing $100 billion in assets under management (AUM), has become the firm's most profitable ETF, generating $244.5 million in annual revenue. This growth underscores the transition from speculative retail trading to strategic institutional investment, with ETFs serving as a bridge between traditional finance and crypto. The maturation of the market is evident in reduced volatility and enhanced liquidity, as ETFs absorb large orders without destabilizing prices.

Looking ahead, analysts and investors are monitoring several catalysts. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make decisions on 16 altcoin ETF applications in October 2025, including those tied to Solana (SOL) and XRP. Regulatory clarity, coupled with anticipated Fed rate cuts in October and December 2025, could further boost risk appetite. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's supply dynamics-tightened by the April 2025 halving-position the asset to benefit from sustained institutional demand.

The current trajectory suggests a continuation of the bullish trend, with Bitcoin ETF inflows remaining a key driver. While short-term volatility from leveraged positions and profit-taking remains a risk, the broader market structure indicates a resilient uptrend. As Hougan and other industry leaders anticipate, the final quarter of 2025 could solidify Bitcoin's role as a strategic asset class, with ETFs playing a central role in its mainstream adoption.

Source: [1] Bitcoin ETFs Post Biggest Inflow of 2025 as Uptober ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-post-biggest-inflow-113215131.html) [2] U.S. BTC ETFs See $1B Inflows, Seen 6 Times Before and Each (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/07/u-s-bitcoin-etfs-log-usd1b-inflows-again-a-level-that-s-marked-local-tops-six-times-before) [3] Bitcoin ETFs Ignite Institutional Gold Rush: Record Inflows Propel ... (https://markets.financialcontent.com/deseretnews/article/breakingcrypto-2025-10-8-bitcoin-etfs-ignite-institutional-gold-rush-record-inflows-propel-crypto-to-new-heights) [4] Bitcoin Price Can Reach $131K as ETF Inflows, Chart Pattern Align (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/10/05/bitcoin-price-can-reach-131k-as-etf-inflows-chart-pattern-align/) [5] Bitcoin etf inflows boost market as Bitcoin posts ... (https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/10/06/bitcoin-etf-inflows-boost-market/) [6] Bitcoin Price Prediction: Indicator Points to $200K by End of 2025 (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/03/bitcoin-to-usd200k-by-end-of-2025-this-cycle-indicator-points-to-explosive-months-ahead) [7] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Top Analyst Points to ... (https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-top-analyst-points-to-possible-200000-target-in-q4/) [8] Bitwise 'not worried' about BTC ETFs, backs for record Q4 2025 (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bitwise-not-worried-btc-etfs-q4-2025/)