Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Clash with Geopolitical, Macro Headwinds in October Showdown

Bitcoin's October performance has defied historical norms, with the asset posting a meager 0.39% return so far this month, far below its 21.89% average during the same period since 2013, according to Cointelegraph. The underperformance has sparked warnings of the "worst Uptober ever," as geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and shifting capital flows weigh on investor sentiment, analysts at TradingView added.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF landscape, however, has shown resilience, with $3.55 billion in inflows reported in early October, driven largely by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. These funds have propelled Bitcoin's price above $126,000, while cumulative inflows for the year reached $30.2 billion, according to TradingView data. Despite this institutional demand, Bitcoin's price action has been volatile, oscillating between $103,500 and $115,000 in recent weeks. A key driver of this instability has been U.S.-China trade dynamics. A preliminary trade framework announced on October 26, which suspended 100% tariffs and rare earth export restrictions, briefly lifted Bitcoin to $113,500, though analysts caution that fragile negotiations could reignite volatility, according to Bitget.

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory has also played a pivotal role. Softer U.S. inflation data has rekindled hopes for rate cuts later this year, shifting capital toward risk assets. Bitcoin's total assets under management (AUM) rose to $178.2 billion, bolstered by $931 million in net inflows during the week of October 24, according to a TradingView report. Yet, the asset's correlation with gold — a traditional safe haven — has turned sharply negative, hitting -0.84, as investors rotate into yield-bearing Bitcoin positions, per Yahoo Finance.

Ethereum, meanwhile, has struggled, recording $168.7 million in outflows for the week, marking its first negative week in five. The asset's AUM fell to $35.23 billion, underscoring a broader shift in capital toward Bitcoin amid uncertainty about Ethereum's post-merge roadmap, as noted in the TradingView report. Altcoins like Solana and XRP saw modest inflows of $29.4 million and $84.3 million, respectively, but remain overshadowed by Bitcoin's dominance in institutional flows.

Market analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's near-term outlook. While some highlight technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout above $118,000, others warn of profit-taking pressure and a possible correction. The TD Sequential indicator has flashed a sell signal, and the CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently returned to "Neutral" levels after a wave of liquidations totaling $468.2 million, according to Benzinga.

The geopolitical landscape remains a wildcard. President Trump's impending meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea could finalize trade terms, but any setbacks could reignite risk-off sentiment. Additionally, the Fed's October 29 meeting will be scrutinized for signals on the end of quantitative tightening, a development that could provide a "huge signal" for markets, the TradingView coverage earlier suggested.

As October nears its close, Bitcoin faces a critical juncture. To avoid its first "red" October since 2018, the asset must claw back at least 4% from current levels — a tall order given the confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds reported by Cointelegraph. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, with institutional players and macro trends poised to dictate the next move.