Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin, Equities Seen Syncing Ahead of 2026 Market Rollback, McGlone Warns

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has issued a stark warning that a market downturn could hit in 2026, citing stretched valuations, deflationary pressures, and a broader rollback in cryptocurrencies as key indicators of an impending crisis. In a recent interview with The David Lin Report, McGlone described the current environment as a "late-cycle excess" rather than a time of opportunity, emphasizing that downside risks across risk assets are mounting. He specifically highlighted the correlation between bitcoin and U.S. equities, noting that both are becoming increasingly aligned in their price movements.

McGlone's outlook for bitcoin is particularly dire, with the asset potentially dropping from $50,000 to as low as $10,000 in a severe market correction.

This prediction aligns with his belief that the broader market is showing signs of stress, with deflationary forces expected to dominate in 2026 as global growth slows. He points to falling energy prices, weakening global demand, and China's economic slowdown as factors reinforcing his deflation thesis.

The strategist also raised concerns about U.S. equities, noting that the market's capitalization relative to GDP remains near historic extremes. He warned that even a modest pullback in the S&P 500 could trigger a broader deleveraging across asset classes, leading to further market instability.

A Crypto-Driven Warning Signal

McGlone argues that cryptocurrencies are a leading indicator of wider market stress, with bitcoin and the broader crypto market already showing signs of a rollback. He pointed to the 2024 and 2025 period as the peak for crypto, driven by the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and the election of Donald Trump, which he described as the final accelerant of speculative excess. According to McGlone, the recent surge in crypto has been fueled by late-stage buyers rather than a fundamental shift in demand, making the sector vulnerable to a sharp correction.

The strategist emphasized that bitcoin is now trading more like a leveraged equity than a defensive asset. He pointed to the strengthening correlation between crypto and traditional equities as a red flag for investors, noting that the two markets are no longer operating independently. This development, he argues, undermines the idea that cryptocurrencies offer diversification benefits in a portfolio.

Precious Metals and Bonds in the Spotlight

While McGlone is a long-time bull on gold, he warned that the precious metal is now "overstretched" following its strongest annual performance since 1979. He noted that extreme price deviations in gold often precede sharp corrections, cautioning investors against initiating new long positions at current levels. However, he still believes gold could eventually reach $5,000 per ounce, though only after a significant consolidation or correction in the near term.

On the monetary policy front, McGlone sees U.S. Treasurys as the most attractive risk-off option in a market he describes as increasingly complacent. He argued that long-duration bonds could serve as a hedge against equity drawdowns and highlighted the Federal Reserve's recent Treasury purchases as an early sign of easing, even if the central bank avoids labeling it as quantitative easing. McGlone also expressed concern that volatility measures remain near multi-year lows, indicating that investors are underestimating the likelihood of a sharp market move.

Risks to the Outlook

The most immediate risks to McGlone's outlook include the potential for a sudden shift in market sentiment, particularly if a triggering event leads to a cascade of selling in risk assets. He noted that investors are currently "waiting for a trigger" and that once that trigger is pulled, the market could see a significant sell-off. The strategist also highlighted the fragility of current capital inflows into risk assets, emphasizing that a slowdown in demand could accelerate a correction in both equities and crypto.

Another potential risk lies in the fragmented nature of the crypto market, which McGlone believes has weakened the asset class's ability to maintain strong price support. With over 28 million crypto assets now tracked by CoinMarketCap, he argued that capital is being spread too thin, reducing the likelihood of sustained demand for bitcoin. This trend, he said, mirrors the dynamics seen in the stock market before the 2007 financial crisis.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, McGlone's warnings underscore the need for caution in a market he describes as being "overdue" for a meaningful down year. He recommended U.S. Treasurys as a defensive position, arguing that long-duration bonds offer a functional hedge against potential equity drawdowns. He also advised against taking on new long positions in overextended assets like gold and bitcoin, at least until market conditions stabilize.

In a broader sense, McGlone's outlook highlights the risks of complacency in a market that has experienced years of growth without a significant correction since 2008. He argued that the current environment is defined by late-cycle excess rather than opportunity, and that investors should prepare for a period of consolidation or correction. For now, the strategist sees the market teetering on the edge of a potential downturn, with volatility likely to pick up as we approach 2026.