Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's New Drivers: Central Bank Policies Overtake Halving Cycles

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has argued that Bitcoin's traditional four-year price cycle is no longer a reliable framework for predicting market behavior, asserting that the cryptocurrency's movements are increasingly driven by U.S. and Chinese monetary policy rather than the rigid halving schedule Fed cuts rates by 25bps as Trump pushes for more, crypto …^[6]. The former trading platform executive contends that current easing measures in both economies-marked by accommodative central bank policies and structural liquidity shifts-have created a distinct environment where Bitcoin's rally may extend beyond historical patterns. This perspective challenges the long-held notion that Bitcoin's price peaks and corrections are primarily dictated by the supply-reducing halving events, which historically occurred every four years Fed cuts rates by 25bps as Trump pushes for more, crypto …^[6].

The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point rate cut, announced in October 2025, has further amplified this narrative. The move, part of a broader dovish policy shift, has reduced the appeal of traditional interest-bearing assets, pushing capital into riskier markets like cryptocurrencies . President Donald Trump's administration has actively advocated for lower rates, with the president himself expressing frustration over the pace of cuts and signaling a preference for more aggressive easing. These actions align with broader institutional and regulatory developments, including the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 and the passage of the GENIUS Act, which has streamlined the adoption of dollar-backed stablecoins . Analysts like Matthew Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management note that these factors have created a "liquidity-sensitive, macro-correlated" environment for Bitcoin, where institutional flows and regulatory clarity now play a dominant role Bitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking - CNBC^[1].

Meanwhile, China's monetary and regulatory strategies are also reshaping the landscape. While Beijing has historically pursued policies that tightened liquidity-contributing to past Bitcoin bear markets-current efforts to combat deflation and support credit growth suggest a departure from this pattern Fed cuts rates by 25bps as Trump pushes for more, crypto …^[6]. The Chinese government's push for the digital yuan (e-CNY) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar has further underscored its strategic interest in reordering global monetary systems . However, Hayes argues that China's recent focus on stabilizing domestic credit and avoiding deflationary shocks reduces the likelihood of a policy-driven downturn for Bitcoin in the near term. This contrasts with historical cycles, where Chinese liquidity contractions often coincided with Bitcoin's sharp corrections Fed cuts rates by 25bps as Trump pushes for more, crypto …^[6].

The interplay between U.S. and Chinese policies has also introduced geopolitical dimensions to Bitcoin's trajectory. A report by the Bitcoin Policy Institute highlights how the U.S. and China are competing to shape the future of global finance through digital currencies Who Will Rule Crypto? The China-US Battle for Global …^[5]. The U.S. is leveraging dollar-backed stablecoins and a proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to reinforce dollar dominance, while China's e-CNY expansion aims to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in trade and payments. This rivalry has intensified as both nations seek to control the infrastructure underpinning the next phase of financial innovation. The report notes that the U.S. already holds the largest Bitcoin reserves among nations and has a significant share of global mining capacity, giving it a strategic edge in this contest Who Will Rule Crypto? The China-US Battle for Global …^[5].

For investors, the implications of these shifts are profound. Traditional four-year cycles, which once predicted Bitcoin's peaks and crashes with relative consistency, may no longer apply. Instead, market dynamics are now more closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, such as Fed rate projections, Chinese credit growth, and geopolitical developments. Ryan Chow of Solv Protocol observes that the era of 70%-80% drawdowns following Bitcoin's highs appears to be fading, with current corrections limited to 26%-50% ranges due to increased institutional participation and long-term holder accumulation Bitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking - CNBC^[1]. Hougan adds that while volatility remains a feature of the market, the forces historically driving four-year cycles-such as speculative retail demand-have weakened, replaced by macroeconomic and regulatory factors Bitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking - CNBC^[1].

The debate over Bitcoin's future trajectory remains active. While some experts, like Harry Collins of Bluefin, predict a bull market peak in October 2025 Bitcoin Four-Year Cycles Ending Due To Institutional …^[2], others argue that the halving event's supply-side effects cannot be ignored. Nonetheless, the consensus is shifting toward a model where monetary policy, rather than algorithmic halvings, dictates Bitcoin's price action. As Hayes and his peers emphasize, this transition reflects broader trends in financial markets: the integration of cryptocurrencies into institutional portfolios, the normalization of digital assets as a macroeconomic tool, and the geopolitical realignment of global monetary systems Fed cuts rates by 25bps as Trump pushes for more, crypto …^[6].