Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Dovish Fed Signals Spark Greed, But Bears Watch for $105K Capitulation

Bitcoin's recent price action has drawn attention from traders and analysts as it tests key support levels and navigates the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. On August 24, 2025, Bitcoin dropped below $113,000, hitting a low of $112,565—the lowest level since August 3—as investors shifted focus to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s anticipated address for cues on future rate policy [1]. The price movement has raised concerns among traders, particularly as Bitcoin appears to be in a post-all-time high (ATH) contraction phase [1].

Glassnode’s data highlights the influence of new buyers with unrealized losses, suggesting these positions are under pressure and could trigger further downward momentum before any potential recovery [1]. Technical indicators also signal prolonged weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40, nearing oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, reflecting ongoing selling pressure in the market [1]. Additionally, a bearish candlestick pattern known as the “three black crows” has emerged, potentially foreshadowing further declines [1].

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is currently in a range of 0.96 to 1.01 for short-term holders (positions under three months), indicating mild losses. If the SOPR continues to fall below 0.9, it may signal capitulation—a historical precursor to market bottoms [1]. Analysts warn that a close below $112,000 could lead to further declines, with downside targets potentially reaching $108,000 and $105,150 [1]. Conversely, a breakout above $116,000 could open the door to retesting the $124,450 level, which previously served as resistance [1].

The broader crypto market responded positively to Powell’s speech, where he hinted at potential rate cuts, sparking a surge in risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin briefly erased its recent gains, falling to $110,779.01, but later stabilized near $112,000 [2]. Meanwhile, Ether (ETH) reached a new all-time high, exceeding $4,950, driven by regulatory tailwinds and growing institutional interest [2]. ETH’s sustained strength above $4,000 has been attributed to a shift in leadership within the crypto market, with corporate entities increasingly treating ETH as a treasury asset [2].

Market sentiment also shifted into "greed" territory, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which climbed to 60 on Saturday from a neutral 50 on Friday [3]. This shift was fueled by Powell’s dovish remarks, which increased the likelihood of a September rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 meeting now stands at 75%, up from 65% the previous day [3]. This increased liquidity expectations, particularly for rate-sensitive assets like Ether, where the yield advantage of staking becomes more attractive as U.S. rates decline [3].

Bitcoin-proxy stocks also saw a rebound, with Strategy and Coinbase rising more than 5% and nearly 7%, respectively [4]. The broader market’s anticipation of lower interest rates rekindled appetite for risk assets, contrasting with earlier bearish positioning by traders who had anticipated a more hawkish stance from the Fed [4]. Prediction market platforms like Polymarket now reflect an 80% probability of a September rate cut, up from 56% before the Jackson Hole speech [4].

As the market awaits further clarity on the Fed’s policy direction, Bitcoin remains in a delicate phase. The bears are monitoring for failed attempts to retest the $116,000 level, while bulls seek confirmation of a reversal through a bullish engulfing candle or a higher low above $112,000 [1]. The outcome of Powell’s policy trajectory may ultimately determine whether Bitcoin can regain its footing or face further consolidation [4].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin (BTC) Below Rising Wedge Support, Bears Eye 108k-105k Zone (https://www.xt.com/en/blog/post/bitcoin-btc-below-rising-wedge-support-bears-eye-108k-105k-zone)

[2] Ether hits fresh record, bitcoin erases gains from Jackson (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/24/crypto-market-today.html)

[3] Fed-Fueled Crypto Rally Pushes Sentiment Into 'Greed' (https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-market-greed-bitcoin-ether-price-rally-federal-reserve-dovish)

[4] Bitcoin and Crypto Stocks Surge as Powell's Rate-Cut Hint (https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-and-crypto-stocks-surge-as-powell-rate-cut-hint-revives-risk-appetite-11795898)