Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Dominance Rejected at 65% Resistance, Altcoin Season Looms

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has recently encountered a critical rejection from a key resistance level known as the TSDT resistance, which previously marked the beginning of a significant altcoin season. This technical signal has sparked interest among analysts who are closely monitoring the market for indications of a new altcoin season, potentially mirroring the explosive shift observed in 2021.

Market expert Tony Severino's analysis, shared on social media, reveals that Bitcoin Dominance has faced a sharp rejection from the crucial TSDT resistance area near 65%. This level has historically acted as a technical ceiling, triggering a capital rotation from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies and fueling the famous altcoin season in early 2021. Severino's monthly chart shows Bitcoin Dominance steadily climbing from mid-2022, peaking at around 65% in July 2025 before being rejected. This behavior mirrors the price action observed in late 2020 to early 2021, when BTC.D also reached this zone, got rejected, and then plunged—triggering a full-blown altcoin rally.

Currently, Severino’s chart indicates that Bitcoin Dominance sits at approximately 64.07%, just under the TDST resistance at 63.83%, with a notable candle forming after a strong uptrend. The analyst suggests that if history repeats itself in this current cycle, it may result in a similar capital inflow into altcoins, potentially igniting the next altseason. The chart also outlines key technical thresholds, including the TDST resistance, a TDST risk around 57.11%, and TDST support down at 40.08%. A decline toward these lower levels would indicate a significant drop in BTC dominance and further reinforce a pro-altcoin environment.

Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader has also shared insights on the possibility of an explosive altcoin season this bull cycle. The analyst noted on social media that a historical pattern between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin Dominance appears to be repeating, signaling the beginning of a new altcoin supercycle. According to his chart, three major DXY bull traps have been identified since 2016, each followed by a dramatic decline in BTC.D and a strong rally in the altcoin market. The first two DXY bull traps, which occurred around 2017 and 2020, both triggered significant breakdowns in BTC.D—plunging from over 90% to around 35% in 2018, and again in 2021. These breakdowns marked the start of powerful runs, now recognized by the analyst as altcoin supercycles.

The current market structure now suggests that the next leg lower could be imminent, with BTC.D beginning to trend downward again. If history repeats itself, this setup implies a weakening dollar, declining Bitcoin Dominance, and the potential for altcoins to outperform significantly in the coming months.

Bitcoin dominance, a metric that measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin holds, has recently faced a significant rejection from a key resistance level. This resistance level, known as the TSDT resistance, had previously triggered the last altcoin season, a period during which alternative cryptocurrencies experienced substantial gains relative to Bitcoin. The rejection from this resistance level suggests that capital may be beginning to flow out of Bitcoin and into altcoins, potentially signaling the start of a new altcoin season.

The Altcoin Season Index, which tracks the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin, has risen to 36, recovering from a low of 15 in June. This indicates that 36 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin, further supporting the notion that capital is flowing into altcoins. This shift in capital flows is not limited to large-cap altcoins like Ethereum and Solana, but is also extending to mid-cap and smaller altcoins.

The recent rejection of Bitcoin dominance from the TSDT resistance level is significant because it coincides with a period of increased market sentiment and capital flows into altcoins. Bitcoin's recent all-time high of $118,000 may have diverted capital away from Ethereum and other altcoins, but the current market dynamics suggest that this trend may be reversing. The Ethereum Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, has also indicated that when the market becomes greedy, altcoin investments greatly increase, leading to a decrease in Ethereum's dominance.

The current market conditions, with Bitcoin dominance facing rejection from a key resistance level and the Altcoin Season Index on the rise, suggest that a new altcoin season may be on the horizon. This could present opportunities for investors to capitalize on the potential gains in altcoins, but it also comes with risks, as the cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.