Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Dominance Nears 64% as MACD Bearish Crossover Signals Altcoin Rally Looming

Bitcoin’s market dominance is approaching a pivotal technical threshold as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator nears a bearish crossover, a pattern historically associated with shifts in capital toward altcoins. The 3-week MACD on Bitcoin’s dominance chart is on the verge of crossing below its signal line, a development not seen since January 2020 [1]. At current levels, Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 61.26%, with analysts noting a structural similarity to the 2020 decline that preceded a 105-day altcoin rally [2]. If the breakdown confirms, it could signal the start of another "altseason," where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the coming months.

The technical setup mirrors key elements from late 2020, including a rejection at multi-year resistance levels in June 2025 and a weakening ascending trendline. CrypFlow, a prominent market analyst on X, highlights that the current dominance chart aligns with the 2020 blueprint, where Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market dropped sharply after the bearish crossover, triggering a surge in altcoin activity [2]. A similar move now would likely extend into October, potentially replicating the extended altcoin cycle seen in 2020.

Supporting this narrative, the TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 indices—representing broader altcoin market caps—have recently posted golden crosses, reinforcing the trend toward capital reallocation. These signals, typically interpreted as bullish momentum in altcoins, coincide with the weakening MACD on Bitcoin’s dominance chart [1]. Analysts caution that while the golden crosses suggest strengthening interest in alternative cryptocurrencies, a confirmed breakdown in Bitcoin’s dominance remains critical for validating the shift.

The 64% resistance level for Bitcoin dominance has historically served as a psychological barrier. When Bitcoin’s share approaches this threshold, investors often rebalance portfolios toward altcoins, either to hedge against Bitcoin’s potential consolidation or to capitalize on undervalued assets. The current trajectory, with Bitcoin dominance edging closer to 64%, aligns with patterns observed in prior cycles, including the 2021 altcoin surge following Bitcoin’s consolidation [1]. However, the outcome hinges on real-time price action and technical confirmations.

A successful breakout above $90,000 (hypothetical price) for Bitcoin could delay a broader rotation into altcoins by solidifying its dominance. Conversely, failure to break this level might accelerate capital outflows into alternative assets. Traders are advised to monitor on-chain metrics, such as Bitcoin’s dominance correlation with the broader market. A decoupling—where Bitcoin rises independently—would signal a return to a Bitcoin-led rally, whereas synchronized movements would reinforce altcoin optimism [1].

While the MACD bearish cross and 64% resistance are significant, analysts emphasize contextualizing them within broader market dynamics. Macro factors, including regulatory developments and macroeconomic trends, will also shape outcomes. For now, the convergence of historical patterns, technical indicators, and market sentiment points to a critical juncture for the crypto space. Investors are urged to balance technical analysis with fundamental research to navigate potential volatility.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin Dominance Approaches 64% Resistance as Altcoin ...] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-dominance-approaches-64-resistance-altcoin-rally-looms-2507/]

[2] [Bitcoin Trade Ideas — BITSTAMP:BTCUSD] [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/ideas/?sort=recent]

[3] [Understanding the Cup and Handle Pattern in Crypto Trading] [https://www.tradingview.com/other-chart-patterns/]