Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Dominance MACD Bearish Cross Signals 105-Day Altcoin Surge as Ethereum Rallies 50%

The cryptocurrency market is signaling a potential shift in capital flows as Bitcoin dominance approaches a key technical threshold. Bitcoin dominance ($BTC.D) is on track to record its first three-week (3W) MACD bearish cross since January 2020—a historical indicator linked to prior altcoin outperformance cycles. This development aligns with patterns observed during the 2020 bull run, when Bitcoin’s market share declined while altcoins surged for approximately 105 days before finding support [1].

Recent analysis from CrypFlow highlights structural similarities between the current and 2020 market conditions. The 3W MACD bearish cross, if confirmed, could signal a "capital rotation" from Bitcoin to altcoins. This follows a sharp rejection of the TSDT resistance level by $BTC.D in early July, a move analysts associate with impending altcoin momentum [4]. Concurrently, broader altcoin indices such as TOTAL2 (excluding Bitcoin) and TOTAL3 (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) have displayed golden crosses, traditionally viewed as bullish signals for market breadth [1].

Market observers note that the 2020 cycle’s timeline provides a potential roadmap. After the MACD cross in early 2020, Bitcoin dominance slid until mid-October, coinciding with a 105-day altcoin rally. If the current pattern repeats, a similar decline in Bitcoin’s dominance could position altcoins for a multi-month surge through October 2025 [1]. CrypFlow projects that the projected 105-day "altseason" aligns with this historical framework, reinforcing the technical thesis [1].

Capital allocation trends further support this narrative. Institutional investors and traders are increasingly shifting funds to Ethereum and select altcoins, with Ethereum’s 50% gain over the past month outpacing Bitcoin’s 24% year-to-date return [5]. On-chain data also indicates growing Ethereum adoption, while Bitcoin’s recent price action—testing the lower boundary of its established range—has raised questions about its ability to sustain leadership [3].

Technical indicators underscore the uncertainty. Bitcoin remains above key moving averages but faces a declining 50-day moving average on shorter timeframes, reflecting waning short-term momentum [6]. A breakout above $120,200 could rekindle bullish sentiment, but recent partial rebounds have failed to generate sustained rallies. Meanwhile, Ethereum and other altcoins have held critical support levels, suggesting resilience in the broader market [6].

Macroeconomic factors add complexity. Citigroup’s forecasts for Bitcoin hinge on $15 billion in ETF inflows to reach a base-case target of $135,000 by year-end, while a more aggressive $199,000 projection depends on favorable macroeconomic conditions [1]. Conversely, a downturn in U.S. economic data could push Bitcoin toward $64,000, intensifying altcoin gains as investors seek opportunities amid Bitcoin’s consolidation phase.

The interplay between technical and fundamental forces defines the current landscape. While Bitcoin’s position above key indicators offers potential for a rebound, its inability to sustain rallies above $120,200 leaves bearish scenarios intact. Altcoins, however, are gaining traction from technical strength and shifting capital flows, with Ethereum and other high-performing assets capturing investor attention. The coming weeks will likely clarify whether Bitcoin can reclaim dominance or if altcoins will drive the next phase of market growth.

Sources:

[1] [Altcoins Poised to Rally as Bitcoin Dominance Nears Historic Breakdown](https://cryptofrontnews.com/altcoins-poised-to-rally-as-bitcoin-dominance-nears-historic-breakdown/)

[2] [Ethereum News Today: Ethereum Approaches $3,850 Resistance as Bitcoin Rally Could Spark Altcoin Momentum](https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-news-today-ethereum-approaches-3-850-resistance-bitcoin-rally-spark-altcoin-momentum-2507/)

[3] [Bitcoin Tests Range Lows After Sweeping Local Liquidity](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-tests-range-lows-after-sweeping-local-liquidity/)

[4] [Bitcoin Dominance Just Got Rejected From TSDT](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/332ac-bitcoin-dominance-rejection)

[5] [Four Clear Drivers Behind the $115K Slide](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/27431510172385)

[6] [Bitcoin Price Holds Above $115000 — Here's Why This](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-hold-above-115000-why/)