Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Dominance at 61.26% Faces Bearish MACD as Altcoin Rally Looms

Bitcoin’s market dominance is approaching a critical juncture as technical indicators suggest a potential breakdown in its primacy, echoing patterns observed during the 2020 altcoin rally. The Bitcoin dominance index ($BTC.D), currently at 61.26%, is nearing a key resistance level as the 3-week MACD approaches a bearish crossover—a rare event last seen in January 2020. This development, highlighted by CrypFlow on X, mirrors the structural setup from late 2020, including a rejection of multi-year resistance in June 2025. A confirmed breakdown could signal a renewed shift in capital toward altcoins, potentially triggering a prolonged altseason similar to the 105-day surge that followed the 2020 decline [1].

The golden crosses observed in the TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 indices further reinforce the trend. These indicators, which track the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins, suggest strengthening momentum and a redistribution of investor interest from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies. The alignment of these signals with a bearish MACD crossover on the dominance chart amplifies the likelihood of a broader market rotation. If the pattern holds, altcoins may outperform Bitcoin in both price action and inflows over the next three months, extending the potential rally into October [1].

Historical parallels to 2020 provide a framework for understanding the implications. During that period, Bitcoin’s dominance declined for over 100 days, allowing altcoins to gain significant traction. A similar scenario could unfold if the current bearish crossover confirms, with the dominance index potentially dropping to a green support trendline identified by CrypFlow. This would mark a significant shift in market dynamics, as Bitcoin cedes its position as the dominant asset to create space for altcoin innovation and speculation [1].

However, not all signals point to an immediate breakdown. Bitcoin’s dominance remains elevated, and the 64% level—a historically significant resistance point—has been identified as a potential threshold for investor behavior [2]. If the index sustains above this level, it could reaffirm Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset in crypto, curbing altcoin outperformance. Analysts note that the MACD divergence on Bitcoin’s daily chart, where price action and the indicator move in opposite directions, adds caution to bullish assumptions. A bearish crossover, where the MACD line dips below the signal line, would validate a weakening trend and increase the probability of a deeper decline [2].

The interplay between dominance and technical indicators underscores the complexity of market sentiment. While Bitcoin’s elevated dominance suggests strong accumulation, the bearish signals hint at a tug-of-war between holders and traders seeking to rebalance portfolios. The outcome will depend on volume and price behavior as key levels are tested. A breakout above 64% with robust volume could extend Bitcoin’s bullish phase, whereas a failure to hold above this threshold—paired with a confirmed MACD bearish crossover—might accelerate a shift to altcoins [2].

For investors, the coming weeks will be pivotal. The alignment of historical patterns with current technical conditions creates a high-stakes environment, where outcomes could reshape capital allocation across the crypto ecosystem. Traders are advised to monitor volume, on-chain activity, and broader macroeconomic factors, such as regulatory developments and interest rates, which may influence the trajectory. While the technical signals provide actionable insights, external variables will ultimately determine the market’s path [2].

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Dominance Approaches 64% Resistance as Altcoin Rally Looms] (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6886ccb6bd87cb2c7f22bfd5/)

[2] [Bitcoin Trade Ideas — BITSTAMP:BTCUSD] (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/ideas/?sort=recent)