Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Dips 4% Below $115K as $390M Futures Expire Derivatives Signal Mixed Sentiment

Bitcoin’s recent dip below $115,000 has sparked scrutiny over the durability of its key support level, as derivatives data suggests mixed signals about market sentiment. The cryptocurrency fell 4% between Thursday and Friday, its first drop below this threshold in two weeks, coinciding with the expiration of $390 million in futures contracts—14% of open interest. While the decline raised concerns about bearish pressure, indicators like futures premiums and options skew painted a more nuanced picture.

Bitcoin’s 2-month futures traded at a 7% annualized premium over spot prices, aligning with the neutral 5%-10% range observed in typical market conditions. This suggests no major shift in long-term expectations despite the 7% drop from its July 14 record high of $123,181. Analysts noted that the last time bullish momentum emerged in derivatives was in February, driven by U.S. import tariffs and Fed rate policy uncertainty, highlighting the influence of macroeconomic factors over technical indicators [1].

Options data further revealed a surge in the 25% delta skew to 10% on Friday, a level last seen four months ago, indicating temporary fear of a correction. However, the skew quickly normalized to 1%, signaling balanced risk perception among whales and market makers for both upward and downward moves. This rapid normalization contrasts with the prolonged volatility typically seen during market stress events [1].

The neutral stance in derivatives was corroborated by stablecoin demand in China, where Tether (USDT) traded at a modest 0.5% discount. A wider discount often reflects panic as traders exit crypto positions, but the current level suggests minimal impact from Bitcoin’s pullback. This aligns with steady retail activity in the region, as stablecoin flows have remained largely unchanged despite the price action [1].

Market structure analysis added complexity to the narrative. CoinGlass reported a concentration of bids at $114,500 and a dense order block of asks up to $118,500, indicating a lack of robust buying interest to defend the $115K level. Short-squeeze activity in altcoins further diverted capital to safer assets, compounding downward pressure on Bitcoin [2]. Analysts at Binance and CoinDCX, however, highlighted the potential for a rebound if price stabilizes above $115K and institutional demand resurfaces. A technical analyst emphasized $98K as a critical long-term support zone, with 348,000 BTC held by long-term investors, though a retreat to $104K—the STH cost basis—could trigger short-term weakness [3].

The situation underscores structural vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s derivatives market, where high leverage and retail concentration amplify volatility. Citi’s base-case forecast projects $135K by year-end but acknowledges risks of a protracted consolidation phase if $115K support fails. This outcome depends on macroeconomic stability and sustained ETF inflows, which had surged to $2.37 billion between July 14–18 before reversing [7].

Investors are now monitoring key indicators, including ETF inflows and the $114,500 bid level identified by CoinGlass. Further outflows or regulatory headwinds could exacerbate downward momentum, while stabilization above $115K might attract buyers seeking undervaluation. The current data, while not reflecting critical issues in crypto markets, remains constructive for the $115K resistance level [1].

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Derivatives Data Questions the Strength of BTC’s $115K Support](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-data-questions-the-strength-of-btc-s-115k-support?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound)

[2] [BTC Dives Below $115K, $140M in Longs Liquidated](https://cryptoadventure.com/bitcoin-whiplash-btc-dives-below-115k-140m-in-longs-liquidated/)

[3] [Netizen Weekly | Bitcoin Market Update 23 - by Brian Velez](https://netizencapital.substack.com/p/netizen-weekly-bitcoin-market-update-82e)

[7] [Bitcoin to Hit $135K by Year-End in Base-Case Forecast...](https://cryptoadventure.com/bitcoin-to-hit-135k-by-year-end-in-base-case-forecast-199k-in-bullish-scenario-citi)