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Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since July 11, 2025, as U.S. employment data fueled doubts about the Federal Reserve’s willingness to cut interest rates soon. The cryptocurrency dropped to $115,122 on July 23, 2025, marking a 2.72% decline, driven by a stronger-than-expected jobs report that revised downward market expectations for rate cuts this year. The report highlighted 235,000 nonfarm payrolls added in June and a 3.7% unemployment rate, signaling a resilient labor market and reinforcing the Fed’s stance on maintaining “higher for longer” rates [1]. This shift in sentiment pushed
to a seven-day low and mirrored broader market selloffs, with risk assets like equities and gold also underperforming [2].The Federal Reserve’s July 30–31 policy meeting is now widely seen as unlikely to deliver a rate cut, with traders pricing in less than a 10% chance of a reduction per the CME FedWatch tool. The data underscored the central bank’s focus on inflation control, even as softer economic indicators in other sectors had previously spurred rate-cut speculation. Analysts noted that the report aligns with the Fed’s dual mandate of employment and price stability, removing the narrative of a “soft landing” in the economy [5].
Bitcoin’s volatility reflects its growing sensitivity to macroeconomic signals. While traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, the asset’s recent performance highlights its entanglement with Fed policy expectations. Traders are now shifting attention to the September meeting, where the CME FedWatch tool shows a 58% probability of a rate cut. However, the July jobs report has pushed this timeline back, creating short-term uncertainty for risk-on markets [3].
The broader financial landscape saw mixed reactions. Equity indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite declined as investors recalibrated for a prolonged high-rate environment. Gold, which had surged earlier in the year on rate-cut hopes, retreated by 1.2% in Asian trading. U.S. Treasury yields climbed to a five-week high, reflecting renewed confidence in sustained tight monetary policy [4].
Analysts emphasized that the jobs report’s impact extended beyond rate-cut timing. Vishal Goenka, a U.S. bond market analyst, stated the data “removes the narrative of a soft landing” and underscores the Fed’s credibility in managing inflation, which could stabilize long-term investment flows. However, prolonged high rates risk stifling growth in credit-dependent sectors, leaving investors in a holding pattern [5].
Market participants are now closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, particularly the August inflation report, which could reignite rate-cut speculation if price growth slows. Until then, Bitcoin and other crypto assets are likely to remain volatile, reflecting the tug-of-war between macroeconomic realities and investor sentiment [2].
Source:
[1] ["Latest Cryptocurrency & Bitcoin (BTC) News" (Seeking Alpha)](https://seekingalpha.com/market-news/crypto)
[2] ["Stock Market LIVE Updates: Sensex falls over 600 pts, Nifty..." (The Economic Times)](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/live-blog/bse-sensex-today-live-nifty-stock-market-updates-25-july-2025/liveblog/122892310.cms)
[3] ["Wall St stumbles after report of Trump mulling major tariffs..." (AOL.com)](https://www.aol.com/news/wall-st-futures-edge-optimism-101415807.html)
[4] ["Oil prices rise as trade deals take centre stage" (Yahoo.co)](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-gold-pound-083509116.html)
[5] ["US Treasury pullback from long-term bonds signals policy..." (The Economic Times)](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/bonds/us-treasury-pullback-from-long-term-bonds-signals-policy-divergence-says-vishal-goenka/articleshow/122863318.cms)

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