Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 'Digital Gold' Surge as Whales Lock Up 72% Supply

Bitcoin whale activity has surged to record levels, with addresses holding 100+ BTC reaching an all-time high as institutional demand and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows continue to reshape market dynamics. On-chain data reveals that over 14.3 million BTC-nearly 72% of the circulating supply-is now classified as illiquid, held by entities with minimal spending history. This includes long-term holders (LTHs) and large investors, or "whales," who have accumulated nearly 300% of the annual mined supply, significantly reducing exchange balances. The shift toward self-custody and institutional consolidation has tightened liquidity, with corporate treasuries and ETF issuers controlling 2.88 million BTC as of October 2025, a 30% increase from January.

The recent awakening of dormant whale accounts has intensified speculation about potential price volatility. A notable example is a 14-year-old address containing 10,000 BTC that recently transferred its holdings to an unknown wallet. Such movements often precede major market cycles, with historical patterns showing that spikes in old wallet activity align with bull runs or profit-taking by early adopters. Meanwhile, a $11 billion Bitcoin whale returned in September 2025, transferring $360 million BTC to a DeFi protocol's hot wallet. This marked the whale's first activity in two months, with transaction patterns suggesting a possible rotation into Ether (ETH), a strategy that previously saw the entity amass over $5 billion in ETH holdings.

Short-term holder (STH) whales, defined as entities holding 1,000+ BTC for less than 155 days, have also seen their unrealized profits peak at $10.1 billion, the highest level in the current cycle. This surge in gains, driven by Bitcoin's rally to $125,000 in October 2025, highlights the growing influence of STHs in market sentiment. Analysts caution that these whales, often considered "weak hands," may trigger profit-taking if demand fails to absorb their potential exits. However, the broader trend of long-term accumulation-evidenced by a 422,000 BTC increase in holdings over seven years-suggests sustained confidence in Bitcoin's store-of-value narrative.

Citi's latest forecast has injected further momentum into bullish expectations, projecting Bitcoin could reach $181,000 by October 2026. The bank attributes this potential surge to sustained ETF inflows and institutional adoption, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $400 million in weekly inflows as of September 2025. Citi's base case assumes Bitcoin will hit $133,000 by year-end 2025, with a bull case targeting $156,000 if equity markets rally. The forecast acknowledges risks, including a potential drop to $83,000 under recessionary conditions, but emphasizes Bitcoin's positioning as "digital gold" and its correlation with gold as a tailwind.

Whale behavior has also signaled a potential re-accumulation phase. After a month of net selling, large holders have slowed their distribution, with the 30-day whale holdings metric showing signs of recovery. Analysts like Burak Kesmeci note that this easing of selling pressure, coupled with Bitcoin's consolidation near $125,000, could pave the way for a breakout into uncharted territory. The 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day line-a "golden cross"-further supports a bullish technical outlook.

The interplay between whale accumulation and institutional demand underscores Bitcoin's evolving role in global finance. Fidelity estimates that LTHs and corporate treasuries could control over six million BTC by year-end 2025-nearly 28% of the total supply. This structural shift, paired with ETF-driven inflows, has reduced exchange-held BTC by over 150% year-to-date, limiting short-term sell pressure. While Citi's $181,000 target hinges on continued institutional adoption, the broader market structure remains robust, with Bitcoin's dominance reasserting itself after a brief altcoin-driven correction in August.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Price Analysis (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/massive-whale-transfer-sparks-buzz-as-bitcoin-eyes-new-ath-will-btc-break-records-this-weekend/)

[2] $11B Bitcoin Whale Returns After 2 Months, Transfers $360M BTC (https://cointelegraph.com/news/11b-bitcoin-whale-returns-360m-btc-transfer)

[3] Bitcoin STH Whale Profits Hit $10.1 Billion, Highest For ... (https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:23a42ca25094b:0-bitcoin-sth-whale-profits-hit-10-1-billion-highest-for-the-cycle/)

[4] Bitcoin Whale Balances Stabilize As Price Hits $125K ATH: Signs ... (https://www.bitcoininsider.org/article/288994/bitcoin-whale-balances-stabilize-price-hits-125k-ath-signs-re-accumulation)

[5] Citi Sees Bitcoin Hitting $181K in 2026 as ETF Flows Drive (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/02/citi-sees-bitcoin-hitting-usd181k-in-2026-as-etf-flows-drive-crypto-higher)

[6] Bitcoin Could Hit $181,000 by 2026 According to Citi's ... (https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-could-hit-181000-by-2026-according-to-citis-latest-forecast/)

[7] Citi Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $181K by 202... (https://coinlaw.io/citi-bitcoin-forecast-181k-2026/)

[8] Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Shatters Records as Whale Accumulation (https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/bitboio/983948)

[9] Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Hits All-Time High as Whales Accumulate (https://bitbo.io/news/bitcoin-illiquid-supply-record/)