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Bitcoin's price surged to a new all-time high above $124,000 in early October 2025, driven by robust inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and macroeconomic tailwinds. According to data provider SoSoValue, the net inflow into these ETFs reached $3.24 billion in the week ending October 3, marking the second-largest weekly inflow on record[1]. This momentum coincided with Bitcoin's price climbing from $122,000 to $124,289 within minutes during the Asian trading session, nearly matching the August record high of $124,429[1]. Analysts attribute the rally to heightened safe-haven demand amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has eroded confidence in traditional financial systems. Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer of Arca, noted, "The only time I buy BTC is when society loses faith in governments and local banks. BTC likely a good buy here ahead of yet another U.S. government shutdown."[1]
The surge was further supported by institutional demand, with Japan-based Metaplanet adding 5,268 BTC to its reserves in early October, valued at approximately $615.67 million[2]. The firm, now the fourth-largest public corporate BTC holder globally, has amassed 30,823 BTC, worth $3.33 billion, and has seen a 497.1% yield year-to-date[2]. Institutional adoption is bolstered by broader macroeconomic factors, including inflationary pressures and global liquidity injections. Noelle Acheson, author of Crypto Is Macro Now, highlighted that "increased borrowing worldwide will intensify currency concerns, and what's good for gold is also good for BTC, especially since it is still woefully under-allocated."[1] She added that the "rush of market support – lower rates, yield curve control, and money printing – will boost global liquidity, seeping into institutional portfolios."
Technical indicators also suggest continued upward potential. The 200-week moving average (200-WMA), a key long-term metric for
, recently breached $53,000, while the realized price climbed above it to $54,000[3]. Historical data shows that when the realized price remains above the 200-WMA, Bitcoin tends to push higher. As of October 5, the cryptocurrency was trading at $124,080, with analysts like Cas Abbé noting a "hidden bullish divergence" on the chart[2]. The market is now closely watching the $117,000 level as the next potential target, with some predicting a new all-time high in Q4 2025 if the Federal Reserve continues rate cuts[2].The seasonal "Uptober" phenomenon, historically associated with strong October performance in crypto markets, has added to the bullish sentiment. Bitcoin closed Q3 2025 at $113,993, the highest quarterly close in its history[2]. Analysts like Titan of Crypto and Steph is Crypto have highlighted the trend, with the latter predicting
could also hit a new ATH alongside Bitcoin's rally[2]. Meanwhile, Coingecko data reveals Bitcoin is currently 9.2% below its peak of $124,128, which was recorded in August[3]. This suggests further upside potential, particularly as spot ETF inflows resume momentum. On September 29 and 30, spot BTC ETFs recorded inflows of $518 million and $429 million, respectively[2].The convergence of ETF demand, macroeconomic factors, and institutional adoption has positioned Bitcoin for a potential $150,000 milestone. George Kailas, CEO of Prospero.ai, emphasized that "perception itself appears to be driving this surge," noting the growing belief in Bitcoin as a hedge against government dysfunction[4]. Brett Sifling of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management added that October's seasonal strength, combined with the government shutdown and Fed easing, creates a "self-reinforcing" rally[4]. Joe DiPasquale of BitBull Capital underscored the role of supply constraints post-halving and the "digital gold" narrative in reinforcing buying pressure[4]. With these factors aligning, the market is poised to test the $150,000 level, pending sustained institutional and retail participation.
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