Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Descent Tests $108K EMA—A Make-or-Break Moment for Bulls

Bitcoin’s price has recently dropped below the $111,570 mark, marking a significant development in the cryptocurrency market. As the world’s largest digital asset by market capitalization, Bitcoin continues to be a focal point for investors, traders, and analysts globally. The current price decline, while not reaching a cycle low, has raised questions about the trajectory of the asset in the near term.

The current valuation of Bitcoin stands at $111,570, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.22 trillion, based on a circulating supply of 19,911,200 BTC. Over the past 24 hours, the price has declined by $3,079.33, and the asset has experienced a 3.31% drop in value over the last seven days. This downward movement has prompted discussions around whether the market is in a consolidation phase or the onset of a more significant correction.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price movements indicates that the cryptocurrency is currently facing short-term resistance at the $114,000 level. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is exhibiting a bearish trend, with the 50-day moving average falling and the 200-day moving average declining since August 22, 2025. This suggests a weakening in the short- and long-term bullish momentum. However, on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin appears more resilient, with the 50-day moving average rising and the 200-day moving average supporting a sustained upward trend since February 9, 2025.

One of the key technical indicators to watch is the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $108,000, which has historically acted as dynamic support during bull market cycles. Analysts are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold above this level to maintain its path toward potential targets like $150,000. If the price continues to fall below $110,530, further corrections toward the $105,000 level or the psychological $100,000 barrier could be a possibility.

On-chain data also offers insights into market behavior. Short-term holders (STH), those who have held Bitcoin for one to six months, remain profitable with an aggregate unrealized gain of +4.50%. In contrast, newer investors holding Bitcoin for less than a month are currently sitting on average unrealized losses of around -3.50%. This dynamic suggests a classic market capitulation phase, where less patient investors are exiting while more seasoned holders remain unfazed. This shift is often seen as a bullish structural development, as it transfers Bitcoin from weaker hands to those with a lower cost basis and higher conviction.

The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price has also led to a significant liquidation event, with $70 million in BTC longs being wiped out following a price dip below $111,000 on Binance. Open interest (OI) dropped significantly, and the cumulative net taker volume plunged by approximately $1 billion, signaling aggressive sell-side dominance and capitulation among late buyers. Analysts like Amr Taha have noted that with overleveraged buyers removed and open interest reset, the market is structurally healthier, with latent upside potential if Bitcoin reclaims key levels and triggers short covering.

Despite these developments, there are still bullish indicators that suggest Bitcoin could stabilize and resume its upward trajectory. The 30/30 peak indicators—a set of widely followed metrics—have yet to signal an overbought condition. For example, the Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to block rewards, is currently at 1.39, far below the 2.2 threshold historically associated with price peaks. Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s price to its capital inflows, remains in neutral territory, indicating that the market is not yet overheated.

Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole economic symposium will be a key event to watch. While the recent U.S.-EU trade deal did not significantly impact Bitcoin’s price, the uncertainty surrounding the September rate-cut expectations could play a critical role. Prediction markets currently assign a 36% chance of no rate cut occurring at the September meeting, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicating a 25% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Given the Fed’s influence on global markets, any deviation from expected monetary policy could trigger further volatility in Bitcoin and other digital assets.

In addition to macroeconomic factors, the structure of the cryptocurrency market itself is evolving. Bitcoin ETFs have contributed to increased institutional participation and broader market adoption. These products have not only attracted new investors but have also amplified demand and liquidity in the market. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has further enhanced the legitimacy of Bitcoin as an investable asset, drawing both retail and institutional capital into the space. This development has triggered significant Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and contributed to the recent price surge to over $93,000 in November 2024.

Bitcoin’s historical behavior also provides a useful lens for understanding its potential future movements. The cryptocurrency is known for its four-year market cycles, comprising phases of accumulation, mark-up, distribution, and mark-down. Experts believe the current cycle is entering a new growth phase, with the potential for a peak between 2024 and 2025. The recent block reward halving event in April 2024 further supports this bullish outlook, as it reduces the supply of new Bitcoin and historically triggers price increases.

While the current price dip has raised concerns, it is important to contextualize it within the broader narrative of Bitcoin’s development. The asset has consistently demonstrated resilience, overcoming challenges and achieving record highs despite skepticism from various quarters. Its role as a hedge against inflation, store of value, and medium for financial inclusion continues to attract new investors and institutional interest.

However, Bitcoin’s environmental impact and regulatory challenges remain areas of concern. The energy consumption associated with its proof-of-work consensus mechanism continues to draw criticism, and evolving regulations—particularly around anti-money laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) laws—pose potential obstacles for broader adoption. Nonetheless, the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies by major corporations, as well as the integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial products like ETFs, suggests a positive trajectory for the asset.

In summary, Bitcoin’s recent price drop below $114,000 is a significant event that has sparked debate among market participants. While the immediate outlook remains uncertain, the broader technical and structural indicators suggest that the cryptocurrency is not in a bearish trend. Seasoned investors are maintaining their positions, and key support levels appear to provide a floor for potential rebounds. As the market navigates this phase, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize and resume its upward trajectory.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2025 2026 2027 - 2030 (https://changelly.com/blog/bitcoin-price-prediction/)

[2] Was $124K the top? Bitcoin's price peak signals tell a different story (https://cointelegraph.com/news/was-124k-the-top-bitcoin-price-peak-signals-different-story)

[3] SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK (https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-predictions-8-25-spx-dxy-btc-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-doge-ada-link)

[4] Bitcoin Ignores US-EU Trade Deal With $114K In Focus (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dip-hinges-on-114k-as-markets-shrug-off-us-eu-trade-deal)

[5] Bitcoin's Price Teeters Around $114K Amid US-EU Trade ... (https://www.mexc.com/en-GB/news/bitcoins-price-teeters-around-114k-amid-us-eu-trade-deal-indifference/69283)