Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin derivatives signal fragile $115,000 support after 4% drop triggers $140M liquidations

Bitcoin derivatives data has cast doubt on the resilience of the $115,000 support level for Bitcoin, as mixed signals from options and futures markets highlight trader caution despite recent price fluctuations. The cryptocurrency fell below this critical threshold on July 16, marking its first drop below $115,000 in nearly two weeks and triggering $140 million in long-position liquidations [4]. This followed earlier reports in late June and early July indicating traders remained neutral amid a 7% decline from higher levels, with derivatives data showing no clear directional bias [1][2].

The $115,000 level, historically a key psychological and technical support, now faces scrutiny. On June 30, Bitcoin fell 4% below $115,000, coinciding with the expiration of $390 million in futures contracts, which amplified market concerns about its ability to withstand further downward pressure [2]. CoinGlass data from July 17 added nuance, revealing a cluster of sell orders above $118,500 and potential bid support at $114,500, signaling heightened volatility if the price fails to rebound [10].

Market participants are closely monitoring order-book dynamics and funding rates, which have historically influenced Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Analysts note that while derivatives data does not confirm a breakdown, the lack of immediate buying interest at $115,000 contrasts with previous bullish momentum. A report from CoinDCX warned that a sustained drop below this level could lead to consolidation toward lower ranges, though a strong rebound above $122,000 might rekindle upward momentum toward $130,000 by early August [9].

Stablecoin demand in China provides additional insight into market sentiment. Strong retail activity typically drives stablecoins to trade at a 2% or higher premium to the official U.S. dollar rate. Conversely, a discount greater than 0.5% often signals risk aversion. Currently, Tether (USDT) trades at a modest 0.5% discount in China, suggesting Bitcoin’s recent price dip has not significantly affected regional crypto demand. This stability contrasts with broader market fears, as traders exit positions in response to global trade tensions or U.S. economic uncertainties [2].

The broader derivatives market has shown no dramatic shift in positioning, with Bitcoin futures remaining largely unchanged despite the 4% decline [1]. This neutrality underscores the market’s uncertainty, as traders balance short-term profit-taking against lingering expectations of a rally. The absence of large-scale buying pressure suggests that while $115,000 is not yet confirmed as a breakdown point, its strength is being tested in real time.

Analysts caution that Bitcoin’s mixed signals reflect a lack of consensus among traders. The 25% delta skew—a measure of put-call options pricing—surged to 10% in mid-July, a rare stress level last seen four months earlier. However, this fear quickly dissipated, with the skew returning to a balanced 1% level, indicating that whales and market makers are pricing similar risks for upward and downward moves [1]. This dynamic suggests that while volatility remains, there is no definitive shift in long-term expectations.

Institutional forecasts, however, remain bullish. Citi reiterated its base-case prediction of $135,000 for year-end 2025 and a more optimistic $199,000 scenario, citing structural demand for Bitcoin [6]. These projections, however, do not account for immediate technical challenges or the risk of further liquidations if the $115,000 level fails to hold.

The current environment reflects a tug-of-war between short-term bearish pressure and long-term bullish fundamentals. While Bitcoin traders have not panicked after the 7% drop from its all-time high, they also show no eagerness to buy near $116,000. This cautious stance is somewhat reassuring, particularly given concerns about the entity that sold a portion of its 80,000 BTC balance at Galaxy Digital [2].

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives data does not confirm a breakdown but highlights the fragility of the $115,000 support level. Traders remain neutral, with no clear signals of a reversal or acceleration. This uncertainty underscores the importance of monitoring global macroeconomic factors, which could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Futures Unchanged As BTC Falls Near Support]

(https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-data-questions-the-strength-of-btc-s-115k-support)

[2] [Bitcoin Dips 4% Below $115K as $390M Futures Expire]

(https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-dips-4-115k-390m-futures-expire-derivatives-signal-mixed-sentiment-2507/)

[4] [BTC Dives Below $115K, $140M in Longs Liquidated]

(https://cryptoadventure.com/bitcoin-whiplash-btc-dives-below-115k-140m-in-longs-liquidated/)

[6] [Bitcoin to Hit $135K by Year-End in Base-Case Forecast]

(https://cryptoadventure.com/bitcoin-to-hit-135k-by-year-end-in-base-case-forecast-199k-in-bullish-scenario-citi)

[9] [When Will the Crypto Market Bull Run Begin in 2025?]

(https://coindcx.com/blog/crypto-deep-dives/crypto-bull-run-2025/)

[10] [Crypto Newsletter, 24/7 Real-Time Market Updates, Global]

(https://www.coinglass.com/newsflash)