Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s "Death Cross" Signals a Market Crossroads: Momentum Fades, but Top Not Yet Near

Bitcoin’s valuation metrics have recently shown signs of a potential macro top, with the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) momentum indicator forming a "death cross," a historically bearish pattern. According to onchain analysts, this crossover between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages suggests a reversal in positive momentum. The MVRV death cross last appeared at the 2021 cycle top, preceding a 77% correction in Bitcoin (BTC) to $15,500 from $69,000 in 2022. Analyst Yonsei_dent noted in a recent QuickTake analysis that the current signal “indicates weakening capital inflow” and that “history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes,” emphasizing the relevance of the MVRV signal in evaluating market sentiment [1].

The bearish divergence is further supported by Ali Martinez, who highlighted a similar pattern forming on the weekly BTC chart. In a post on X, he described how Bitcoin has been printing higher price highs while onchain indicators show lower momentum lows. Martinez also outlined potential support levels for BTC at $104,520, $97,050, and $59,720 based on UTXO Realized Price Distribution data. The current BTC price, around $109,432, is down from the $124,500 all-time high seen earlier in the year [2].

Despite these bearish signals, other onchain metrics suggest the market is not yet overheated. The MVRV Z-Score, a measure of how far Bitcoin’s market value deviates from its realized value, remains well below historical levels seen at market tops. According to analysis by Stockmoney Lizards, the Z-Score has historically entered a “red zone” (indicating overvaluation) when it surpassed 7 or 9 at previous cycle peaks. In 2025, the score is currently at about 2, suggesting there is still room for BTC to rise before reaching a potential top [1].

Additionally, CoinGlass reports that all 30 of its bull market peak indicators are still within normal ranges, indicating that Bitcoin is not yet in a position of overextension. This divergence between bearish momentum indicators and the absence of extreme overvaluation metrics suggests the market may yet rally to new highs. Analysts are pointing to potential price targets as high as $260,000, based on the bullish megaphone pattern and ongoing capital inflow [1].

The evolving role of Bitcoin as a macroeconomic hedge is also drawing attention. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a potential counterweight to fiat volatility and inflation. In 2025, its fixed supply and decentralized nature position it as an asset that could benefit from a loss of confidence in traditional monetary systems. Analysts at Token Metrics note that Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has historically fluctuated, but its recent behavior as a risk asset highlights its growing integration into mainstream financial discourse [4].

While Bitcoin’s price may still face downward pressure in the near term, the market appears to be navigating a broader shift in how the asset is perceived and traded. Institutional adoption, combined with its evolving macroeconomic narrative, could redefine Bitcoin’s role in the years ahead. However, investors are advised to remain cautious, as the current signals suggest the possibility of an extended correction in the coming weeks. The onchain data does not indicate a definitive top, but the signs of exhaustion and potential momentum reversal warrant close attention as the market moves forward.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin valuation indicator hints at macro top as 'death ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-valuation-indicator-hints-at-macro-top-as-death-cross-appears)

[2] Crypto Trader Issues Urgent Bitcoin Alert, Says BTC ... (https://dailyhodl.com/2025/08/30/crypto-trader-issues-urgent-bitcoin-alert-says-btc-flashing-signal-that-preceded-2021-cycle-top/)

[3] Bitcoin - MVRV Z-Score | Series (https://en.macromicro.me/series/8365/bitcoin-mvrv-zscore)

[4] Bitcoin vs. US Equities Correlation (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/us-equities-correlation)

[5] BITCOIN vs. US DOLLAR INDEX DXY (https://en.macromicro.me/charts/84646/BITCOIN-vs-US-DOLLAR-INDEX-DXY)

[6] Tracking Bitcoin's Rise as a Macro Hedge with Token Metrics (https://www.tokenmetrics.com/blog/tracking-bitcoins-rise-as-a-macro-hedge-with-token-metrics---the-1-crypto-analytics-platform-in-2025)