Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Death Cross Dilemma: $100K Support Tests Bearish Outlook

Bitcoin's price action has drawn sharp focus as the cryptocurrency retreated below $107,000 after a failed attempt to reclaim a key resistance level, intensifying bearish technical signals and prompting analysts to highlight critical support zones to monitor next. The rejection at $107,250—the lower end of a multi-week trading range—has reinforced concerns about a potential "death cross" pattern, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the 200-day SMA, a historically bearish indicator, CoinDesk reported.

However, past false signals in 2023 and 2024 have tempered expectations, with traders cautioning that this development alone may not confirm a prolonged downturn, CoinDesk reported.

The price slide has pushed Bitcoin below $105,000, with the $100,000 level now serving as a pivotal psychological support. Analysts note that a sustained break above $107,250 would be necessary to invalidate the bearish case and reignite a rally toward $109,000–$110,000, Cointelegraph said. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals continued selling pressure from both long-term and short-term holders, with long-term holders offloading 405,000 BTC in 30 days and short-term holders sending 28,600 BTC to exchanges in three days, Cointelegraph said. This divergence between retail resilience and institutional distribution underscores the market's fragility.

Technical traders are also monitoring a CME futures gap between $104,000 and $105,000, created during the weekend rally following the U.S. government shutdown resolution, CryptoSlate reported. Historically, such gaps often see price retracements, with over two-thirds of similar events since 2022 closing within 48 hours, CryptoSlate reported. Bitcoin's current position near the midpoint of this range has traders split: a move below $104,000 could trigger a test of $102,000–$103,000 liquidity zones, while a rebound above $106,000 may stabilize the price without a deep retrace, CryptoSlate reported.

The broader crypto market shows mixed signals. While Bitcoin's consolidation near $100,000 remains critical, Ethereum and XRP are displaying signs of independent strength. Ethereum has absorbed short-term selling pressure near $3,000, with analysts eyeing a potential rebound if it reclaims $3,500–$3,600 resistance, TradingView reported. XRP, meanwhile, is consolidating around $2.20–$2.30, with Ripple's decision to retain 25% of its token supply signaling long-term confidence, TradingView reported.

Macro factors, including Trump's proposed $2,000 stimulus checks and the end of the government shutdown, have injected short-term optimism, TradingView reported. However, on-chain metrics suggest the market remains in an accumulation phase, with forced selling largely exhausted after recent liquidations of $345 million in positions, TradingView reported. Bitwise's Matt Hougan remains bullish, arguing that the current selloff reflects retail capitulation rather than a deeper collapse, with Bitcoin potentially ending 2025 at record highs, Cointelegraph said.

As the crypto market navigates these dynamics, traders are bracing for volatility. The coming weeks will test Bitcoin's ability to defend $100,000 and whether institutional buyers will step in to close the CME gap or catalyze a new leg higher. For now, the path forward hinges on technical validation and macroeconomic clarity.

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